By: Jerry Organ, Bakken Professor of Law and Co-Director of the Holloran Center for Ethical Leadership in the Professions, University of St. Thomas School of Law

In January 2022, I posted a blog about the 10% increase in first-year enrollment across law schools in fall 2021, suggesting that the addition of roughly 3000-3500 law school graduates in May 2024 might mean employment challenges for some, particularly in states or regions that saw the largest increase in first-year students in fall 2021.

Was I ever wrong!  The ABA will be releasing data on employment outcomes for 2024 graduates of all ABA-accredited law schools in the coming days.  But I went and gathered the data from all ABA-accredited law schools to see how things turned out for the class of 2024, and the results are stunning!  Absolutely, unbelievably stunning!!

Across all ABA-accredited law schools outside of Puerto Rico, the number of graduates between 2023 and 2024 increased by 3,710, from 34,845 to 38,555, but the number of graduates in full-time, long-term bar passage required [FTLT BPR] jobs increased by even more —  3,731 — from 27,854 to 31,585!

You read that right.  The increase in the number of graduates in FTLT BPR jobs between 2023 and 2024 exceeded the increase in the number of graduates overall between 2023 and 2024.

As a result, despite adding roughly 3,700 law graduates, law schools saw the percentage of graduates in FTLT BPR positions increase from 79.9% to 81.9% — the highest rate since records have been maintained.  This is truly astonishing!

Trend from 2014 to 2024

For the graduating class in 2014, nearly 25,000 graduates found FTLT BPR jobs.

For the next several years, from 2015-2020, the number of graduates in FTLT BPR jobs fluctuated between a low of roughly 22,800 and a high of roughly 24,500.

During this period, I began wondering whether the number of graduates passing the July bar exam might be imposing an upper limit on the number of graduates reported as being employed in FTLT BPR positions.

As shown in the table above, in 2014, the number of graduates in FTLT BPR positions was roughly 73% of those graduates from ABA-accredited law schools who were first-time passers on the July bar exam.  By 2018, this percentage had increased to 97%.  By 2020 and 2021, this percentage was over 99%.  In 2022 and 2023, this percentage exceeded 100%.  (These results can be more than 100% given that the ABA definition for bar passage required positions includes positions for which the graduate need not pass the bar (judicial clerk) as well as positions for which the graduate may not have passed the bar but is expected to pass the bar to continue in the position.) (The data for the number of graduates passing the July 2024 bar exam on their first try has not yet been released by the NCBE, but I expect the number to be between 29,500 and 30,000.)

Since 2021, the number of graduates in FTLT BPR positions has been on the rise – 26,500 in FTLT BPR positions for 2021 graduates, 27,700 for 2022 graduates, 27,900 for 2023 graduates and now roughly 31,500 for 2024 graduates, the highest number ever, surpassing the previous high of roughly 30,500 for the graduating class in 2007, just prior to the great recession.

These data points for the classes of 2020 through 2023 suggest that perhaps the market for law grads who have passed the bar exam has been growing at a rate greater than the number of law grads who have actually passed the bar exam.

Possible Reasons for this Increase in Full-time, Long-Term Bar Pass Required Positions

What might explain this growing appetite for law grads in FTLT BPR positions?

I think the most likely explanation is demographic.  The attorneys that started the significant, sustained growth in the legal profession in the late 1970s and early 1980s are finally starting to retire or die in significant enough numbers to counterbalance new entrants into the legal profession.

The chart above shows that between 1980 and 2015 the number of lawyers increased from roughly 500,000 to 1,300,000.  From 1980 to 2000, the legal profession added about 25,000 lawyers each year, dropping to roughly 20,000 lawyers being added each year between 2000 and 2015.  But since 2015, there has been little meaningful growth in the legal profession.

While the number of law school graduates fell to roughly 35,000 by 2017, the number actually passing the bar and getting admitted to practice was even lower, probably less than 30,000 annually for the period from 2017 to 2023 (including July and February takers).

It appears that the number of lawyers exiting the marketplace – through death, retirement, concerns about well-being, or simply a desire to pursue a different calling – has increased sufficiently over the last decade that more FTLT BPR positions were available to 2024 law school graduates than ever before.

This could be a blip.  It could be that demand for law school graduates who had passed the bar exam in recent years exceeded the number of eligible graduates such that there was a little bit of pent-up demand that was satiated with the larger class of graduates in 2024.  So perhaps this will ultimately be seen as the high-water mark.

But if, in fact, we have reached a point where the market for lawyers has “matured” and reached a new normal in terms of having the number of annual exits from the legal profession roughly equal the number of new entrants each year, this could mean that law schools and law graduates can expect that the gap between the number of law graduates and the number of FTLT BPR positions will remain relatively narrow compared to historical trends as shown in the next chart.

Of course, it is hard to make predictions with much confidence given the current economic turbulence and risk of a recession, along with a possible decrease in government jobs and the challenges and opportunities presented by artificial intelligence. Nonetheless, given that the number of law graduates will be smaller in 2025 and 2026 than for the class of 2024, any decline in the number of FTLT BPR jobs available for graduates likely will be counterbalanced by having fewer graduates.

(I am thankful for helpful comments on earlier drafts from Jim Leipold and my Holloran Center colleagues, Neil Hamilton and David Grenardo.)