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Minnesota Commercial Real Estate Outlook Shows More Signs of Optimism

Spring 2019 – Minnesota Commercial Real Estate Outlook Shows More Signs of Optimism for the Upcoming Two Years

The May 2019 University of St. Thomas / Minnesota Commercial Real Estate Survey is continuing to show to show changes in the sentiment of our panelists as they look out over the next two years. The biannual survey projects a two-year ahead outlook for Minnesota’s commercial real estate industry and forecasts potential opportunities and challenges affecting all commercial real estate sectors.

As was done with all sixteen of our previous surveys, the same group of 50 commercial real estate industry leaders involved in development, finance, and investment were polled regarding their expectations of near-term future commercial real estate activity. The decisions that these industry leaders are making today will determine what the CRE markets will look like two years from now.

Spring 2019 Results

Observations from May 2019 have recorded several notable changes in the panel’s expectations when compared to the previous survey conducted in Fall 2018. “There is still some concern that we are near the top of the cycle and that overbuilding and increased vacancies may occur in some product types and submarkets.” says Herb Tousley, Director of the Real Estate Programs at the University of St Thomas. “While our composite index for late 2021 remains slightly pessimistic, there are some bright spots worth noting. There is no expectation of a major downturn in the commercial real estate market in the Twin Cities within the next two years. The increase in online shopping, low interest rates, changes in housing trends and the continued redefinition of the office environment will remain major factors in the performance of commercial real estate in the coming two years.”

The panelists are very concerned about the expected increase in the cost of land and building materials and its expected impact on values and expected returns for developers and investors. There was a big change in the index for investor’s return expectations. It increased 9 points moving from a pessimistic level moving to slightly optimistic territory. This is a big change in sentiment since our last survey. It appears that our panel now expects interest rates to remain stable at current low rates. While our respondents are not expecting a major downturn, they are more somewhat concerned about where we are in the market cycle.

Index values greater than 50 represent a more optimistic view of the market over the next two years, with values of less than 50 indicating a more pessimistic view. More detailed information about each of the individual indices may be found below.

The individual indexes are detailed below:

Rent Expectations

The outlook for rental rates is essentially unchanged from our last survey. Market conditions expected in early 2021 are best described by the price for space (rental rates) and the supply of space (occupancy levels). The index for rental rates was 63 compared to 62 six months ago. This means the panel continues to be strongly optimistic in its expection of continued rent growth. The panel’s sentiment is that the economy will continue to grow and that business conditions will continue improve creating more competition for commercial space.

 Occupancy

The outlook for occupancy levels continues to be moderately pessimistic moving from 43 to a slightly less pessimistic 45. This indicates the panelist’s belief that occupancy levels and space absorption may not remain at current levels during the next two years. As a great deal of new product continues to be delivered, the panel is beginning to be concerned about the market’s ability to absorb the new space. This is especially noticeable in the multi-family and certain office and industrial segments. It is a continuation of a general trend that began 4 ½ years ago. Businesses expect to continue to grow but they are concentrating on reducing their cost of occupancy by doing more with less space.

Land Price Expectations

The rate of increase in land prices is expected to accelerate. The land price index has decreased (become more pessimistic) in the current survey moving from 46 last December to 40 this spring. Although, the lowest point for the index was recorded at 31 in the fall 2013 survey, a score of 40 for this index indicates increasing concern about the rapid rise of land prices. Since land prices are a major component of project costs, any increase has a great deal of impact. Higher land prices are a hindrance to new development, making it more difficult to obtain financing and adequate returns for investors.

Building Material Price Expectations

There is a continued expectation that increases in the price of building materials will continue to increase. The index for the price of building supplies remains strongly negative, moving from 26 in December 2018 to 32 in May 2019. The panel believes that commodity prices for lumber, concrete, steel and many of the other materials used in construction will continue to increase due to shortages and newly imposed tariffs. Since building materials are a major cost component of any development project any increases in prices will make it difficult to provide adequate returns on future developments.

Return on Investment Expectations

Our panel expects that investors return on investment expectations will remain constant. The index for investor’s return expectations made a big move, increasing from a pessimistic 42 to a slightly optimistic 51. This indicates that investors will be expecting to maintain their expected returns. The consensus among survey respondents indicates that investors will not be seeking higher returns in the next two years due to their expectation of stable interest rates. The panel’s concern remains about market fundamentals over the next two years. Investors will continue to seek out quality investments, but they will be much more diligent about how they price risk, evaluate projects and developer/sponsors when they evaluate potential return when considering their investment options.

Lending Expectations

Equity and loan to value requirements are not expected to increase. The index for the amount of equity required by lenders remained unchanged from our last survey at 41. That recorded level is somewhat pessimistic but, now that appears interest rates have moderated and are expected to stay that way, the panel’s belief that is even if interest rates were to increase moderately credit will still be available for good projects. However, they expect lenders will continue be more risk adverse by tightening their underwriting criteria in the coming two years.

 

 

 

 

 

Best of Real Estate Matters, Commercial Real Estate, Development, Economics, Industry News, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame, Real Estate Programs, Twin Cities Real Estate, Upcoming UST Events, UST Program News

Real Estate Hall of Fame is Seeking Nominees for 2019

University of St Thomas

Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame

Award Criteria

The basic criterion for acceptance into the Hall of Fame is outstanding business performance coupled with a high standard of ethics. Usually the honorees are responsible for successful and/or innovative business activities and have made major life-long contributions to our industry.

– All nominees must be retired from their primary business   or

– Must be at least 65 years of age   or

– Be deceased

Nominations are not limited to University of St Thomas graduates.

Nominees can represent any discipline related to real estate in Minnesota.  The nomination committee is encouraged to nominate candidates from all  disciplines of both commercial and residential real estate.  The committee is encouraged to solicit recommendations from the real estate community and to encourage others from outside the committee to make nominations to insure a wide variety of candidates.

The Selection Committee will consider the following when making their selection of honorees:

  • Business: the nominee has made a significant contribution as a leader in the field of real estate;
  • Nominees are expected to have made a significant impact in their particular area of real estate and be recognized primarily as a person that is an exceptional role model in their discipline.
  • Weight will be given to such accomplishments as starting and building a business, leading an established business to significantly greater achievements, major transactions, and innovative projects.
  • Among the factors to be considered are industry recognitions and accomplishments, being an industry pioneer and/or leader, and recognition by others for achievements.
  • Community: the nominee has had concern for improving his/her community as a business leader
  • Ethics: the nominee has displayed the highest level of ethics in their business practices.

Beyond the criteria noted here, the Selection Committee has the responsibility   and discretionary power to make their determinations from the pool of nominations submitted.

Access the Nomination Form: https://centers.stthomas.edu/shenehon/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2019/05/2019-REHoF-Nomination-Form.pdf

Nomination deadline: June 14th 2019

Affordable Housing, Appraisal, Economics, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Industry News, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Residential Real Estate Index, Twin Cities Real Estate

University of St. Thomas Housing Market Analysis for November 2018

Will A Computer Tell You How Much Your House Is Worth?

Lower Mortgage Rates for Energy Efficient Homes?

Market Update – Is the Twin Cities one of the top markets in the country where you should buy this winter?

 

Will A Computer Tell You How Much Your House Is Worth?

Federal regulators have proposed loosening real-estate appraisal requirements to enable a majority of U.S. homes to be bought and sold without being evaluated by a licensed human appraiser. That potentially opens the door for cheaper, faster, but largely untested property valuations based on computer algorithms.

Appraisals help lenders ensure that the estimated value of the property supports the purchase price and the mortgage amount. An appraisal that is off by a few percent could leave a homeowner owing more than their house is worth or lenders with insufficient collateral to cover defaulted loans.

Will this automated approach work? It is hard to see how an appraisal can be done without a human appraiser involved. There is so much variation in condition and functionally that cannot be assessed by a computer algorithm. There’s still no computer that can see, hear, taste, smell and touch the property. Until that happens appraisals with humans involved will continue be necessary to do accurate appraisals.

Lower Mortgage Rates for Energy-Efficient Homes?

Mortgage guarantors, insurers, underwriters, and security owners have recently observed that home buyers with lower monthly utility costs default less. Do these lower-risk home buyers deserve a lower interest rate? Lenders are starting to consider the idea of offering a lower interest rate for mortgages on energy efficient homes. Energy efficient mortgages (EEMs) encourage energy efficiency by giving buyers a better rate or more borrowing capacity to buy an energy efficient house or to cover the cost of new energy improvements.

There are several types of EEM products in use today; however, adoption remains limited. Developing programs in several states inject capital into traditional mortgage products to “buy down” the interest rate that is charged to borrowers as an incentive to finance energy retrofits. A third structure being tested assumes that the energy savings and reduced exposure to energy costs reduce the risk profile of the loan and on average should lead to better loan performance. The reduced risk justifies a lower interest rate, which in turn improves the loan pricing for borrowers, while leaving underwriting criteria unchanged.

There are now quantitative standards available to measure a home’s efficiency. The HERS Index is the industry standard by which a home’s energy efficiency is measured. The HERS or Home Energy Rating System was developed by RESNET and is the nationally recognized system for inspecting and calculating a home’s energy performance. Certified RESNET Home Energy Raters conduct inspections to verify a home’s energy performance and determine what improvements can be made to increase it. Home buyers will be attracted to buy homes that are not only more efficient, saving utility costs, but also being able to qualify for lower mortgage rates.

November Market Update

According to a recent Zillow report the Twin Cities was one of the top ten markets in the country where it makes the most sense to buy this winter. This ranking is based on an index they developed using the factors below. For potential buyers looking to make a move before rents and mortgage payments rise further, the report indicates our market compares favorably to most other markets in the country.

Here are the three factors that went into the index:

  • The share of price cuts compared to a year ago: (In the Twin Cities the year over year over year actual selling price compared to the asking price has been declining since June indicating that sellers are beginning to cut prices.)
  • Rent appreciation forecast: Metros where rents are expected to rise more over the next year are ranked higher on the index, because they offer the greatest opportunity for buyers to save money by picking up a mortgage rather than continuing to pay rising rents. (Year over year rents in the Twin Cities continue to increase modestly and are expected to continue to do so, although the rate of increase is expected to moderate.)                      
  • Mortgage affordability: Metros that already have bad mortgage affordability will become harder for buyers as mortgage rates rise, so they are prioritized on this index. (Relative to other markets in the country the Twin Cities does not already have “bad” mortgage affordability. In our market mortgage rates have increased and median sale prices continue increase faster than income making mortgage affordability more difficult.)

The median sale price increased .4% between October and November, however the median sale price of homes sold in the Twin Cities has increased by 8.6% in the past year to $266,000. In comparison, the average annual increase for the previous 12 months has been 7.8%.

The number of closed sales decreased .2% between November of 2017 and November of 2018, continuing a trend of decreasing year over year sales that has been observed for 10 of the last 12 months. The combination of the low number of homes available for sale and higher interest rates continues to take its toll on the number of homes sold. The number of pending sales decreased by 5.7% however the number of new listings increased 11.8% compared to the same period last year. The increase in new listings is a hopeful sign that will be more homes available for sale in the coming few months and that the slide in the year over year sales volume will begin to reverse itself.

For more information, visit the Shenehon Center’s complete report for November 2018 at http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/. The report is also available for free via email from Tousley at hwtousley1@stthomas.edu

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Best of Real Estate Matters, Commercial Real Estate, Industry News, Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame, Twin Cities Real Estate

Tom Holtz, Jim Nelson, and Russ Nelson Inducted into Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame

Three new members were inducted into the Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame at an awards breakfast this morning: Russ Nelson, an industry groundbreaker who was among the first to exclusively represent tenants; Jim Nelson, who helped spearhead the new US Bank Stadium; and Tom Holtz, a driving force behind industry giant CBRE.

The Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame was established in 2010 by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas Opus College of Business. Members of the Hall of Fame are chosen for their outstanding business performance, high standards of ethics, and community activities.

The annual event, held at the Golden Valley Golf and Country Club, drew over 200 people including real estate professionals and friends and family members of the inductees. Robert J. Strachota, president of the real estate valuation firm Shenehon Company, acted as emcee and Steve Cramer, president and CEO of the Minneapolis Downtown Council, was the keynote speaker. The awards were presented by Patrick Ryan, President and CEO of builder/developer Ryan Companies.

After the awards presentation and a brief video about each recipient, the event concluded with Herb Tousley, director of the Shenehon Center, presenting scholarships to five students, the winners of this year’s Boyd Stofer & Ken Stensby Real Estate Student Competition. The competition challenges undergraduate and graduate students to develop a business concept that has potential to become a viable, high-growth business or make a meaningful contribution to existing real estate companies. Scholarship recipients are current UST students Ethan Finger, Issac Kuehn, Charles Bird, Holly Spaeth and Matt Michalski.

About the Inductees

Tom Holtz

For nearly 40 years, Tom Holtz has played a pivotal role in developing CBRE into one of the world’s leading real estate services companies. He is personally credited with approximately $11 billion in investment transactions during a career that has touched every major Twin Cities building.

Holtz’s advice is sought by some of the most successful people in the industry, both in Minnesota and across the country. Colleagues praise his sharp intellect and unwavering ethical barometer. Lifelong friends laud Holtz as a deeply spiritual family man who has dedicated his support and leadership to many local and national organizations, including St. Andrew’s Lutheran Church in Eden Prairie and Luther Seminary in St. Paul.

Jim Nelson

Known as “the quiet leader that everyone listens to,” Jim Nelson has spent more than half a century in real estate advisory services, finance, and investment. He played a pivotal role in such transformative projects as the Midtown Exchange, the Walker Art Center expansion, and the new US Bank Stadium, and he is a valued counselor to the City of Minneapolis, Hennepin County, the state of Minnesota, and the University of Minnesota, among others.

In addition to being the principal of Eberhardt Advisory, Nelson has served on numerous civic and industry boards, and he helped shape and guide the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. He is often praised for his devoted mentorship of real estate industry leaders across the state and the country.

Russ Nelson

Known for his energy, enthusiasm, and coveted book of connections, Russ Nelson helped shape the skylines of Minneapolis and St. Paul during his 35-year career. He recently retired from real estate and project management firm NTH, one of the first Twin Cities firms to exclusively represent tenants, which he cofounded in 1993.

Nelson is legendary for his devotion to the downtown Minneapolis core, including one of the largest land sales in the city’s history: the five-block StarTribune megadeal that launched the redevelopment of the Downtown East Commons. Just as legendary is his enthusiasm for serving the community, such as his recent role in helping Como Park Zoo and Conservatory’s raise $8 million for its polar bear exhibit and Japanese garden.

 About the Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame

The Minnesota Real Estate Hall of Fame honors, preserves and perpetuates the names and outstanding accomplishments of real estate leaders who have made significant contributions in real estate and demonstrated care and concern for improving their communities as business leaders.

Appraisal, Commercial Lending, Commercial Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate Index, Development, Industry News, Twin Cities Real Estate

Minnesota Commercial Real Estate Outlook Showing Increased Signs Of Pessimism

 

The October 2018 University of St. Thomas / Minnesota Commercial Real Estate Survey is continuing to show to show changes in the sentiment of our panelists as they look out over the next two years. The biannual survey projects a two-year ahead outlook for Minnesota’s commercial real estate industry and forecasts potential opportunities and challenges affecting all commercial real estate sectors.

As was done with all fifteen of our previous surveys, the same group of 50 commercial real estate industry leaders involved in development, finance, and investment were polled regarding their expectations of near-term, future commercial real estate activity. The decisions that these industry leaders are making today will determine what the CRE markets will look like two years from now.

Fall 2018 Results

Observations from October 2018 have recorded several notable changes in the panel’s expectations that were observed in the last survey conducted in December 2017. “There is some concern that we are near the top of the cycle and that overbuilding and increased vacancies may occur in some product types and submarkets.” says Herb Tousley, Director of the Real Estate Programs at the University of St Thomas. “While the forecast for 2020 has become slightly less optimistic, there is no expectation of a major downturn in the commercial real estate market in the Twin Cities. The increase in online shopping, higher interest rates, changes in housing trends and the continued redefinition of the office environment will remain major factors in the performance of commercial real estate in the coming two years.”

Our panelists seem to be most concerned about the expected increase in the cost of building materials and the impact of rising interest rates on values and expected returns for developers and investors. The panel has changed to a more pessimistic outlook on all categories (see the chart at the end of the report). While our respondents are not expecting a major downturn, they are more concerned about future prospects than they have been in our previous surveys.

The composite index of all the other indices the survey continues to indicate a slightly less than neutral expectation looking ahead two years to late 2020. The composite index was recorded at 42. This is slightly less optimistic than the 43 that was recorded a year ago. Index values greater than 50 represent a more optimistic view of the market over the next two years, with values of less than 50 indicating a more pessimistic view. More detailed information about each of the individual indices may be found below.

The individual indexes are detailed below:

Rent Expectations

The outlook for rental rates has become less optimistic. Market conditions expected in late 2020 are best described by the price for space (rental rates) and the supply of space (occupancy levels). The index for rental rates was 62 compared to 67 one year ago. This means the panel now has a lower expectation of the rate rents will increase for all property types over the next two years. The panel’s sentiment is that the economy will continue to grow and that business conditions will continue improve at slower pace, creating less competition for commercial space.

Occupancy

The outlook for occupancy levels has changed significantly moving from slightly optimistic 52 to more pessimistic 43. This indicates the panelist’s belief that occupancy levels and space absorption may not remain at current levels during the next two years. As a great deal of new product has been delivered the panel is beginning to be concerned about the market’s ability to absorb the new space. This is especially noticeable in the multi-family, office and industrial segments. It is a continuation of a general trend that began 4 years ago. Businesses will continue to grow but they are concentrating on reducing their cost of occupancy by doing more with less space.

Land Price Expectations

The rate of increase in land prices is expected moderate. The land price index has increased (become less pessimistic) in the current survey moving from 38 last in December 2107 to 46 this fall. The lowest point for the index was recorded at 31 in the fall 2013 survey. This index has become somewhat less pessimistic. Although land prices are expected to continue to increase during the next two years, any moderation in the rate of increase would help to keep total project costs in check. Higher land prices are a hindrance to new development, making it more difficult to obtain financing and adequate returns for investors.

Building Material Price Expectations

There is a continued expectation that increases in the price of building materials will continue to accelerate. The index for the price of building supplies remains strongly negative, moving from 24 in December 2017 to 27 in October 2018. The panel believes that commodity prices for lumber, concrete, steel and many of the other materials used in construction will continue to increase due to shortages and newly imposed tariffs. Since building materials are a major cost component of any development project any increases in prices will make it difficult to provide adequate returns on future developments.

Return on Investment Expectations

Our panel expects that investors return on investment expectations will increase. The index for investor’s return expectations has become more pessimistic moving from 42 to 39. This indicates that investors will be expecting to achieve higher returns. The consensus among survey respondents indicates that investors will be seeking higher returns due to their expectation of increasing interest rates and concern about market fundamentals over the next two years. Investors will continue to seek out quality investments but they will be much more diligent about how they price risk and evaluate return when considering their investment options.

Lending Expectations

Equity and loan to value requirements are expected to remain essentially unchanged. The index for the amount of equity required by lenders has decreased slightly, moving from 42 to 41 in December 2017 to 42 in October 2018. Although interest rates have increased somewhat since our last survey, the panel’s belief that is even if interest rates continue to increase moderately credit will still be available for good projects. However, they expect lenders will continue be more risk adverse by tightening their underwriting criteria in the coming two years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Commercial Real Estate, Executive Insight Series, Industry News, Twin Cities Real Estate

Executive Insight Series: Mike Ohmes

Discussion Topics

The CRE Cycle – Are we headed over the top?

Working in the new consolidated CRE environment

Mike Ohmes, Cushman & Wakefield

Executive Vice President, Brokerage

Earning an undergraduate Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and speech communications from Macalester College in St. Paul and an MBA from the Carlson School of Business at the University of Minnesota, Mike Ohmes has a wealth of commercial real estate experience from a broker to a manager.

Today as Executive Vice President Mike Ohmes is responsible for leading Cushman & Wakefield’s Transaction and Advisory Services business. This group includes the company’s Brokerage, Capital Markets and Real Estate Advisory.

Since joining the Cushman & Wakefield in 1991 as a broker in the office division, Ohmes consistently was among the top producers. He has received the company’s Offshore Club designation for his performance a total of 7 times (each year from 1993-1999). In 2000, Ohmes earned the company’s President’s Award for his outstanding contributions to the company, and in 2003, he was recognized by The Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal as one of their “40 Under Forty.”

The Shenehon Center for Real Estate is proud to present this opportunity to gain insights into the commercial real estate industry. Founded in 2000, the Shenehon Center for Real Estate looks to provide both resources and a public forum for real estate industry professionals and the public.

Executive Insight Series - Shenehon Center for Real Estate

When:

Tuesday, November 28th, 5:30PM

Where:

University of St Thomas, Minneapolis Campus

Shulze Hall, Room 127

Interested?

REGISTER HERE

 

 

Development, Economics, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Industry News, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Real Estate Trends, Twin Cities Real Estate

Latest Survey of Twin Cities Home Builders Finds Them Optimistic for 2018, but with Some Concerns

St. Thomas’ fourth semiannual survey of 35 industry leaders measures sentiment and is designed to be a forecasting tool.

 Leaders in the Twin Cities single-family home-construction industry are generally optimistic about market conditions for the coming year although they have concerns about increasing mortgage rates and higher costs of land and building materials. That’s according to a new survey conducted by the University of St. Thomas Shenehon Center for Real Estate in partnership with the Builders Association of the Twin Cities.

The Twin Cities Home Builders Survey is patterned after St. Thomas’ Minnesota Commercial Real Estate Survey that began in 2010. The Home Builders Survey polls the same panel of 35 industry leaders annually in June and again in December about their expectations for the upcoming year in six key areas of the housing market. These experts are asked to assign a number of zero to 100 for each of the six questions. A midpoint score of 50 is neutral; scores higher than 50 indicate a more favorable outlook and scores lower than 50 indicate a more pessimistic outlook.

“The industry leaders we poll every six months are actively engaged in studying both the demand and supply side of the housing market,” said Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the university. “Since they are involved in creating new housing units and adjusting supply-to-demand conditions, these individuals are close to the actual changes taking place in the market.” “These results align closely with what we are hearing from the market and our members.” Said David Siegel, Executive Director of the Builders Association of the Twin Cities. “While there is a great need for residential construction in the Twin Cities, there are still several factors holding it back including land prices, the regulatory burden and a shortage of labor.”

Here are the scores for each of the six questions that were asked in August 2017:

Housing Starts: 65

This score increased increased from 61 in December 2016 to 65, it indicates a high expectation that the number of single-family housing starts will show a marked increase in 2018. Last year was one of the best in recent years with about 5,300 permits issued.

Sale Price per S F: 74

This score is even more optimistic than last December’s score of 72. It reinforces the panel’s continued expectations that home prices will continue to increase. The net result is the belief that sale prices will increase at a rate that will more than offset the expected increases in project costs.

Land prices: 23

At 23 this index has decreased sharply from last December’s score of 31 moving even deeper into the pessimistic range. Indications are that the rate of increased land prices will accelerate in 2018. While there may be enough finished lots available, the higher land prices will squeeze profitability.

Availability of finished lots: 60

This index increased from 51 last December to 60 in June reflecting builders increased optimism that there will be an increase in the availability of finished lots in 2018. An adequate supply of well-located finished lots is crucial to the health of the home building industry.

Cost of building materials: 24

The outlook for the expected increases in the costs of building materials continues to persist. This index moved from 29 in December 2016 to an even more pessimistic score of 24 in June 2016. This score is an indication of increased concern by our panelists that much of the gain from increased sale prices and more building starts will be offset by higher costs. These expected increases in costs could depress profitability and could reduce the number of new homes built.

Mortgage rates: 28

This index remains unchanged at 28. It is an indication that the panel continues to expect mortgage rates to increase in the next 12 months. Although mortgage rates increased during the fourth quarter of 2016, most panelists are expecting an additional increase of ¼% to ½% half a percent within the next year. The affordability issues created by higher rates could put a damper on home-building activity.

More Information

Additional details can be found on the Shenehon Center’s website: http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/default.html

 

Affordable Housing, Development, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Industry News, Residential Real Estate

Ten Surprising Facts: State of the Nation’s Housing Report

Since the housing bubble burst in 2008, the market has seen an increase in demand for homes, but home inventories remain stagnant. Further, either from the bank restrictions or consumer caution new home growth has been at record lows for the last 10 years. Whether this is just a trend or due to socio-economic reasons can be debated, but statistics do show Millenials are living with their parents longer and seem to be putting off buying homes due to a different economic situation than previous generations at the same age (US Census).

Further a recent housing report by Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, posit similar statistics in the market strengthening the argument that Millenials and uncertainty are holding down the housing market.

1. For-sale inventories dropped even lower over the past year.

For the fourth year in a row, the inventory of homes for sale across the US not only failed to recover, but dropped yet again. At the end of 2016 there were an historically low 1.65 million homes for sale nationwide, which at the current sales rate was just 3.6 months of supply – almost half of the 6.0 months level that is considered a balanced market.

2. Fewer homes were built over the last 10 years than any 10-year period in recent history.

Even with the recent recovery in both single-family and multifamily construction, markets nationwide are still feeling the effects of the deep and extended decline in housing construction. Over the past 10 years, just 9 million new housing units were completed and added to the housing stock. This was the lowest 10-year period on records dating back to the 1970s, and far below the 14 and 15 million units averaged over the 1980s and 1990s.

Read more of the Full Article or go straight to the full Housing Report by Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University

 

Affordable Housing, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Industry News, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Residential Real Estate Index, Twin Cities Real Estate

University of St. Thomas Real Estate Analysis for April 2017: High Demand and Low Supply Continue to Put Upward Pressure on Sale Prices

Negative Equity – Continued Improvement in 2016 but Still an Issue

The number of homeowners with negative or near negative equity continues to decline but is still high by historical standards. Lack of equity is a reason that many homeowners are not willing or able to put their homes up for sale which is a contributing factor to the very low number of homes for sale in the Twin Cities. As can be seen in the table below about 1 in 5 homeowners in the metro area with a mortgage is in a negative or near negative situation.

% of Home Owners in the Twin Cities with Negative or Near Negative Equity

County Negative Equity* Near Negative Equity**   County Negative Equity* Near Negative Equity**
Hennepin 8.0% 20.4% Scott 6.1% 20.1%
Ramsey 6.6% 18.7% Carver 5.9% 21.3%
Dakota 6.6% 20.5% Chisago 8.5% 22.9%
Washington 6.6% 21.1% St. Croix (WI) 7.9% 23.0%
Anoka 7.0% 23.6% Pierce (WI) 11.3% 27.5%
Twin Cities 7.3% National 10.5%

     Source: Zillow

* Negative Equity – Owes more than the house is worth

** Near Negative Equity – Equity is less than 20% of value

“The problem with near negative equity is that home owners are not actually underwater, but in many cases they do not have enough equity after they sell their home to pay for the costs of buying a new home, including a down payment, commissions and taxes” said Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the University of St. Thomas. In 2017, home prices are expected to increase about 5% – 6% in the Twin Cities, which will free many more homeowners from negative equity Rising prices and loan repayments will also continue to improve the equity position for homeowners, but this will be a slow process and we should be prepared for higher than normal negative and near negative equity to be a part the housing market for a long time to come.

 High demand and low supply of homes for sale continue to put upward pressure on sale prices in April. The overall median sale price jumped from $237,300 in March to $246,000 in April. The traditional, non-distressed median sale price is at a new all-time high at $250,000, a 4.2% increase compared to April 2016. On the supply side in April there were 10,969 homes available for sale, 19.9% less than April 2016. Again, the shortage is most acute in the low to moderately priced homes. See the table below.

Homes For Sale vs. Closed Sales –  Where The Action Is

Price Range Number of Homes For Sale % of Total Homes For Sale Number of Closed Sales % of Total Sales Months Supply
0 – $200,000 1992 18.2% 1449 30.7% 1.2
$200,000 – $400,000 4554 41.5% 2484 52.5% 1.9
$400,000 – $600,000 2270 20.7% 563 11.9% 4.2
$600,000 + 2095 19.0% 230 4.9% 8.5
       Total 10969 4726

The number of homes sold in April was 4,726 compared to 4,348 in March and 5,252 in April 2016. That is 10% less than the number of sales recorded in the same period a year ago. We believe that this is a reflection that extreme the low supply of homes for sale is beginning to impact the number of homes sold in April. This this the first time since 2011 that the number of closed sales has declined on a year over year basis. The number of new listings was 7,747, which is 8.3% less than recorded in April 2016. That decrease is a sign that the short supply situation is likely to continue for at least the next several months. We believe that the changes observed in April are the beginning of an indication that the supply and demand sides of the market are becoming slightly less imbalanced.

 The St. Thomas Indexes

Here are the Shenehon Center’s monthly composite index scores for April 2017. The index, which tracks nine data elements for the three types of sales (traditional, short sales and foreclosures) started in January 2005. For that month, the center gave each of the three indexes a value of 1,000.

At a level of 1172 the April UST Residential Real Estate Traditional Sale Composite Index is up significantly, registering a 3.1% monthly increase compared to the level of 1137 that was recorded in March.

The UST Residential Real Estate Short Sale Composite Market Health Index was 1045 in April, up 3.1% from the 1014 recorded in March.

The UST Residential Real Estate Foreclosure Composite Index was observed in April at 924 a significant increase over the 901 recorded in March.

For more information, visit the Shenehon Center’s complete report for March 2017 at http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/default.html.The report is also available for free via email from Tousley at hwtousley1@stthomas.edu.

 

Commercial Real Estate, Industry News, Retail Real Estate

Is the U.S. Over-Retailed?

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When and where will we see the impact from the store closures?

Reposted from nreionline – Barbara Byrne Denham, Victor Calanog | May 15, 2017

When looking at the numbers, the story is not as bad as many have reported. The retail vacancy rate for neighborhood and community shopping centers was flat in the first quarter at 9.9 percent, the same as in the first quarter of 2016. Moreover, rent growth was positive, at 0.3 percent for the quarter. The mall vacancy rate only climbed to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent at the end of 2016 and rent growth was 0.4 percent during the quarter.

So when and where will we see the impact from the store closures?

First, many of the store announcements have yet to translate into actual closings. Thus, we should see more vacancies in the next three or four quarters. Second, a number of other retailers are expanding into retail space, we are seeing quite a bit of this in the properties we survey. Third, many of the stores closing are in less densely populated or more rural areas beyond the 80 primary metros that we track. Indeed, our tertiary market statistics show an aggregate retail vacancy rate increase to 13.5 percent from 13.2 percent at the end of 2016 and no rent growth.

We are seeing consistent results in the employment numbers. That is, only 14 of 82 primary metros tracked by Reis show a year-over-year loss in retail jobs, but 35 tertiary markets show an employment loss as of the first quarter. It should be noted that nearly all of the retail losses at the national level are in “general merchandise” stores that include department stores as well as supercenters. It should also be noted that the U.S. added retail jobs in April, yet the media stayed mum.

 Still, anyone looking at this industry will say the same thing: we are over-retailed. Retail development exploded in the late 1980s through the 1990s. It has subsided in this last cycle as many developers and lenders got burned in the recession. But there are likely still more stores than we need. And with the overwhelming growth in e-commerce we probably need fewer than we currently have in a number of markets. But where to start?

A good way of measuring what markets may be over-retailed is to compare retail employment to population. The table below shows the markets with the highest and lowest ratios of retail employees per 1,000 people and the respective growth in retail rent over the last four years.

As the tables above show, there is a pretty wide gap between the metros that have a high retail employment per population ratio and those that have a low ratio (39 to 66). What’s more significant is the differences in the range of rent growth rates between the top and bottom tables. That is, those with a high ratio had persistently slower rent growth than those with a low ratio. In fact, for the 80 metros tracked by Reis, the correlation coefficient for the four-year retail rent growth and retail employment per 1,000 residents is -22.3 percent. In other words, markets that look to be over-retailed (i.e. with a high retail-employee-to-population ratio) have generally seen lower retail rent growth than those that seem to be relatively under-retailed.

While this correlation coefficient is negative as one would expect, it is still pretty low. This suggests that far more variables are impacting retail rent growth. In fact, the correlation coefficient between population growth and retail rent growth was significantly higher: 42 percent. Thus, population growth drives retail rent growth more than the saturation of the retail industry.

 While the numbers show that the retail industry could in fact be over-saturated, the impact of this saturation on the real estate industry may not be as troublesome as many would presume. Again, other businesses are expanding in formerly empty stores, especially non-traditional tenants such as yoga studios and urgent care medical centers. In sum, while the media may overreact to the next jobs report as doom and gloom for the retail industry, it is important to consider what is likely not being reported in the press, which is that the retail industry is performing better than many would assume.

Barbara Byrne Denham serves as an economist and Victor Calanog as chief economist with Reis, Inc, a provider of commercial real estate data and analytics.