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twin cities

Home Prices, Housing

4th of July Real Estate Matters

Last evening, I watched the Delano fireworks. The show was excellent and the lightning made it even more interesting. It got me thinking about the past, and how 10 years ago, my family would get there 5 or 6 hours early to get prime sitting/parking real estate to see fireworks up close. Whereas, now, as long as we can see the fireworks it is a good spot. To be honest, the effort to get a good spot doesn’t have the same value as before.

Although, my preferences have changed, finding a spot to park a car or a lawn chair seems like it is even harder to find than 10 years ago. Granted, Delano hosts one of the oldest annual 4th of July festivals in the state, the town has grown substantially, and they don’t seem to ever hold back on the fireworks. A couple years back at the 100th anniversary, the Delano fireworks show had a finale “end-of-show” firework which my friends and I felt from 10 miles away. I digress. Despite my own preferences, people want prime viewing real estate to watch the fireworks up close, but there isn’t enough. As the effort [price] to acquire the sitting space rises, people, like my family, have decided to locate farther away.

To the point, the fireworks show reminded me of the current housing market. Low housing inventories with high demand. From a simple economic standpoint, people should be entering the market as the price rises, but like the fireworks show there is an intangible element to housing. Individually, we all value these intangible attributes of living differently. For example, some people in a median priced house may value geography and education opportunities higher than the house alone, and they may not be able to find a home with similar geography and education. Therefore, they do not enter the market keeping inventory low.

FRED reports the average American family can afford a mortgage. So, why are we not seeing more sales? Can people not afford or not willing to pay current prices? Could it be trends changing social norms (Home ownership)? Whatever the reason, it will be interesting to see at what point housing inventories truly begin to climb.

Home Prices, Housing Trends, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Residential Real Estate Index

Low Home Inventory Beginning to Affect Sales Volume: First Time Home Buyers Fueling Growth

MINNEAPOLIS, (June 21, 2017)— According to the First-Time Homebuyer Market Report recently released by Genworth Mortgage Insurance this segment of the market is having a big influence on the national housing market. The report found that this demographic accounted for 424,000 single-family home sales, or 38 percent of the total homes sold in Q1 of 2017. This amount is an 11 percent increase from Q1 2016, and the most since 2005. Their source data dates back to 1994 and analyzes over 20 million records. The survey tracks home sales for first-time homebuyers on a monthly basis, publishes quarterly, and compares the data against national housing market indicators.

“The first time home buyer segment is poised for additional growth in the Twin Cities. In fact, historically low interest rates and a strong local economy are all feeding demand in this market segment.” said Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the University of St. Thomas.

There are some head winds that are creating a drag on the willingness and ability of first time buyers to jump into home ownership. Student loan debt is a major factor making it very difficult to save for a down payment, qualify for a mortgage, and afford a mortgage payment. Additionally, the extreme shortage of moderately priced homes is making it difficult for first time buyers to find affordable homes in good locations.

The limited availability of homes to buy is creating upward pressure on sale prices. Home prices have been rising faster than wages for the last several years. This situation is starting to create affordability issues for first time buyers who typically do not have large down payments. The idea of home ownership is still very much alive among younger potential home buyers. However, due to the aforementioned factors many are needing to delay their first home purchase by several years.

 Setting New Records

The Twin Cities housing market continues to set new records in May. Record high median sales prices and historically low supply continue to dominate the market. The overall median sale price jumped from $245,500 in April to $250,000 in May.

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Architecture & Design, Development, Twin Cities Real Estate, Urban Planning

Former Washburn-McReavy Funeral Home Development Remains Postponed

If you take a leisurely drive east over the 3rd Street bridge, you will see a familiar building. Familiar in the sense, the building is 90 years old. Your grandparents likely could have seen it as children. However, today unlike 90 years ago, fences surround the building with visible graffiti and construction equipment. It is the sight of one of many development projects in historic Northeast Minneapolis. 

The plan for the 90 year old building, previously occupied by Washburn-McReavy funeral home, was demolition to make way for a 40 story high rise. The project thus far is similar to the redevelopment efforts of Nye’s Polonaise which occupied the historic Harness shop and 112 Hennepin building. The Nye’s Polonaise project originally planned a high rise building, but in the end scrapped 24 of the original 30 floors to accommodate the neighborhood and Heritage Preservation Commission.

While it is not the same building as Nye’s, the project has been postponed now for almost a year. It will be interesting to see what happens, but recent history and potential project pressures may indicate serious alterations to the original plans.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2017/05/31/court-blocks-teardown-for-alatus-40-story-condo.html

 

Commercial Real Estate, Development, Economics, Executive Insight Series, Housing, Industry News, Investment Real Estate, Real Estate Programs, Real Estate Trends, Think Outside The Box, Twin Cities Real Estate, Upcoming UST Events

Real Estate Executive Insight Speaker Series Bob Lux – Inside the Mind of A Developer

 

Real Estate Executive Insight Series

Bob Lux – Inside the Mind of A Developer 

Event Details Tuesday, March 28th 2017 5:30 p.m. University of St. Thomas, Minneapolis Campus Schulze Hall, Room 127

A candid conversation with industry leader Bob Lux, Founder Alatus LLC

Quality real estate development requires innovative thinking. Bob Lux, founder of Alatus LLC, has been in the real estate development and investment business for over 30 years. His company’s mission is to provide innovative solutions and high quality projects by wisely using his team’s talents and strengths to achieve the client’s vision and form a better community.   Lux will discuss the challenges, opportunities and trends in developing residential and commercial real estate in the Twin Cities. Lux will also share his views on the condo market and as the largest private owner of parking facilities in Minnesota Bob will outline his expectations for future parking and infrastructure needs in the downtown area.

Agenda 5:30-6 p.m. Networking 6-7 p.m. Presentation by Bob Lux

Register Today
 
Affordable Housing, Economics, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Multifamily, Twin Cities Real Estate

St. Thomas real estate analysis for July: Tight market is the result of several long-term trends that won’t change soon

Current trends, including the low number of moderately priced homes, are expected to continue through the end of 2017.mortgages

Current real estate trends in the 13-county Twin Cities region, including the historically low number of moderately priced homes available to purchase, are the result of several long-term trends that are expected to change slowly over time. That’s the conclusion reached by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas’ Opus College of Business. The center examined the Twin Cities’ long-term trends, expected to continue through the end of 2017, in its monthly analysis of metro area real estate data. “The historically low-supply-of-homes-for-sale situation has been with us for the last several years although it has been most acute since mid-2015,” said Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the university.

He cited five statistics that illustrate the housing supply-and-demand situation in the Twin Cities:

  • Days on Market:       It was 53 days in July. That’s 15 percent less than a year ago and the fastest turnover since 2007.
  • Month’s Supply: It was 2.9 months in July. That’s 24 percent less than a year ago and the lowest 12-month average since 2005.
  • New Listings: It was 7,522 in July. Down 14 percent from June and 6 percent from a year ago.
  • Closed Sales: It was 6,030 in July. The annualized number of homes sold has increased 59 percent since early 2011.
  • Homes for Sale: It was 14,457 in July. The annualized number of homes for sale has decreased 48 percent since early 2011.

The shortage of homes is most pronounced for homes selling for less than $200,000 and for those selling between $200,000 and $399,000.

For example, in July there was only a two-month supply of homes selling for less than $200,000 and a 2.6-month supply for homes selling between $200,000 and $399,000. However, there was 5.2-month supply of homes selling between $400,000 and $599,000 and a 10.5-month supply of homes selling for more than $600,000.

Also in July, 56.3 percent of homes available for purchase were under $400,000 while 81.7 percent of homes sold were under $400,000.

The median price for homes sold in the Twin Cities in July was $239,000. That’s down $6,000 from the all-time high median sale price of $245,900 that was set in June. However, it still is in record territory; the previous high was $238,000 set in June 2006.

Supply Side Trends

The Shenehon report cited these long-term underlying trends on the supply side of the Twin Cities market.

  • Americans are keep their homes longer. CoreLogic reported recently that the number of years homeowners owned their homes increased by three years between 2007 and 2013 and it has increased an additional year since then.
  • The homeownership in the Twin Cities, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, was 68.6 percent in the second quarter of 2016. That’s the highest rate of any major metro area in the nation. Nationally, the rate is 62.9 percent.

“Since we have a very high ownership rate and homeowners are keeping their homes longer, the result is fewer existing homes being listed and a shortage of homes available for sale,” Tousley said.

Demand Side Trends

According to this month’s Shenehon report, “On the demand side the simple answer is that people want to live here.”

  • The Twin Cities population has been increasing and is expected to increase for at least the next 10 to 15 years. This is mainly due to migration from rural areas and other parts of the country, and immigration.
  • Housing is affordable. According to a recent Bloomberg News report, the Twin Cities area ranks fourth in the top-10 list of most affordable places for people between the ages of 24 and 44 to purchase a home.

“These people are going to need a place to live here,” Tousley said. “Our diverse economy, strong job growth and high median income attracts people to the area.

“Favorable economic conditions coupled with historically low interest rates and an increasing number of potential home buyers will continue to create strong demand for single-family homes.”

How long will the shortage last?

According to the Metropolitan Council, the Twin Cities region had 1,176,600 owned or rented households in 2015, up almost 59,000 since 2010. During that time, however, only 43,000 housing units were added. The remaining 16,000 new households moved into existing housing, and that in turn reduced the vacancy rate. “This growth pattern is expected to continue for at least the next five years,” Tousley said. “It is unlikely that we will be able to build our way out of this situation in the near term. “Single family home builders have not yet returned to pre-recession production levels. Over the last several years there has been a great deal of multi-family construction but much of this new product has been high-end luxury units, beyond the financial reach of many households. “For the housing market to become more balanced between buyers and sellers we are going to have to add a significant number of affordably priced rental and for-sale housing units. “These units need to be affordable to households who earn the area median income in order to keep up with the expected population growth in the Twin Cities market area. As this happens the market should begin to slowly come back into balance. “However, this is a process that is going to take a number of years and until then we should expect similar market conditions to what we have experienced over the last couple of years. “In the meantime, expect to see solid annual price appreciation for existing homeowners. As you can see from the table below in the past year the supply of homes for sale has become even tighter, especially for homes are priced at less than $400,000

The St. Thomas indexes.

Here are the Shenehon Center’s monthly composite index scores for July 2016. The index, which tracks nine data elements for the three types of sales (traditional, short sales and foreclosures), started in January 2005. For that month, the center gave each of the three indexes a value of 1,000.

  • The July 2016 index score for traditional sales was 1,192, up .3 percent from June 2016 and up 5.7 percent from July 2015.

 

  • The July 2016 index score for short sales was 1,031, up 2.1 percent from June 2016 and up 5.9 percent from July 2015.

 

  • The July 2016 index score for foreclosures was 875, which is unchanged from June 2016 and up 7.1% from July 2015.

For the third consecutive month, the score for traditional sales set new record highs. “Although the increase was small in July, it is the result of a continuing tight supply of homes for sale couple with very low interest rates,” Tousley said in Shenehon Center’s July report.

 More information online

The Shenehon Center’s complete online report for July can be found at: http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/default.html.

The report is available free via email from Tousley at hwtousley1@stthomas.edu.

 

 

 

Affordable Housing, Economics, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Industry News, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Residential Real Estate Index, Twin Cities Real Estate

St. Thomas Real Estate Analysis: Super-tight Housing Market Drives Metro Area Median Sale Price to Near Record Levels

High demand and low supply helped drive the median price of a Twin Cities home in

May 2016 to within $1,000 of the record set back in the bubble days of June 2006.

mortgagesIt has taken a full decade, but the median sale price of a home in the Twin Cities in May 2016 almost reached the all-time record high set back in the housing-bubble days of 2006, according to a monthly analysis conducted by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas’ Opus College of Business. Fueled by low supply and brisk demand, the median sale price of a home in the 13-county Twin Cities region reached $237,000 in May. That’s just shy of the highest median price on record, which was $238,000 back in June 2006. While the selling prices are similar, there are many differences in the 2016 market when compared to 2006. Each month the St. Thomas center tracks the median price for three types of sales: non-distressed or traditional; foreclosures; and short sales (when a home is sold for less than the outstanding mortgage balance). In addition, it looks for trends in the market and creates a monthly composite index score by tracking nine data elements for those three types of sales.

Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the university, observed that the supply of homes on the market dropped to its current low level in early 2013 and has remained historically low since then. He said possible reasons include difficulty in finding and purchasing a replacement home at a reasonable price; higher standards to qualify for a new mortgage; lackluster wage growth over the last several years; and homebuilders not building as many single-family homes as they used to. Meanwhile, on the demand side, Tousley said low interest rates, an improving economy, and a tight rental market are key reasons why the number of sales has steadily been increasing to near pre-recession levels.

“In spite of all of the new apartments that have been built over the last few years we remain in a very tight rental market,” he said. “The area has been absorbing all of the new units and vacancies continue to remain historically very low. The result of a low vacancy and a tight rental market is high rent growth. In 2015 the average rent in the Twin Cities increased by 5 percent. Repeated large rent increases over the last several years have many renters considering the idea of homeownership as an alternative, creating additional potential homebuyers.”

Comparing 2016 to 2006

The Shenehon Center for Real Estate compared May 2016 housing-market statistics with those of 2006. While the selling prices are very similar, some characteristics are quite different. A few examples: in May 2006 there were 5,079 closed sales and in May 2016 there were 6,234; in May 2006 there was a 6.7-month supply of homes for sale and in May 2016 there was a 2.8-month supply; in May 2006 there were 11,458 new listings and in May 2016 there were 8,676; and in May 2006 there were 30,235 homes for sale and in May 2016 there were 13,501.

10 yrs after- then & now

Another way of looking at the impact of low inventory on sale prices is to create a ratio for the number of homes available for sale divided by the number of homes sold that month. For example, if the ratio was 5, it means there were 5 homes available on the market for each buyer. A lower number indicates a tighter market. There were months back in 2007 to 2010 when the ratio was 10 to 14; it has dropped significantly. Tousley said that for most of the previous 14 months the ratio in the Twin Cities market has been less than 4, and in May 2016 the ratio hit an all-time low of 2.17. “When the ratio gets lower and the market gets tighter, the median sale price increases,” he said.

 

Sales Pressure - May 16

The St. Thomas indexes.

Here are the Shenehon Center’s monthly composite index scores for May 2016. The index, which tracks nine data elements for the three types of sales (traditional, short sales and foreclosures), started in January 2005. For that month, the center gave each of the three indexes a value of 1,000.

The May 2016 index score for traditional sales was 1,163, up 3.7 percent from April 2016 and up 8.6 percent from May 2015.

The May 2016 index score for short sales was 980, up 1.6 percent from April 2016 and up 7.7 percent from May 2015.

The May 2016 index score for foreclosures was 859, up 3.2 percent from April 2016 and up 9.4 percent from May 2015.

The May 2016 score was the highest ever for the traditional sale index. “It is the result of a very tight supply situation and continuing high sales activity, indicating the continued health and resurgence of the Twin Cities housing market,” Tousley said. There are far fewer distressed sales now than there were during the height of the Great Recession. In May, the 79 short sales represented 1.3 percent of total sales and the 341 foreclosure sales represented 5.5 percent of total sales. “As the number of distressed sales continue to return to pre-crash levels, the foreclosure index will continue to diminish in importance,” Tousley said.

Index Chart June 2016

Data - May 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Shenehon Center’s complete online report for May can be found at: http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/default.html.

The report is available free via email from Tousley at hwtousley1@stthomas.edu.

 

 

Economics, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Industry News, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Residential Real Estate Index, Twin Cities Real Estate

St. Thomas Real Estate Analysis: Demand for Moderately Priced Homes in Twin Cities Outstrips Supply

Market ReportThe university found the number of homes on the market reached a 10-year
low at the end of 2015. It’s good for sellers but more challenging for buyers.

The Shenehon Center examines new trends and opportunities in multi-generational housing in the Twin Cities.

The supply of homes available to buy in the 13-county Twin Cities region dropped to a 10-year low in December, according to a monthly analysis conducted by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas’ Opus College of Business. Each month the center tracks the median price for three types of sales: non-distressed or traditional; foreclosures; and short sales (when a home is sold for less than the outstanding mortgage balance). In addition, it looks for trends in the market and creates a monthly composite index score by tracking nine data elements for those three types of sales.

Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the university, said there has been a shortage of homes for sale all year, but in December that number dropped to the 10-year low of 10,301. The shortage is especially pronounced for the more moderately priced homes. For example, homes that cost less than $200,000 represented 30 percent of the homes on the market in 2015 but 42 percent of the sales. In that same category there were 1.86 homes available for each one sold. On the other end of the price range, there were 8.85 homes over $600,000 on the market last year for every one that sold.

“The bottom line is that there is way more demand than supply of homes that are priced at less than $400,000,” Tousley said. “The continuing shortage of homes for sale coupled with increased demand for houses in that price range will continue to keep an upward pressure on prices but will likely be a drag on the number of closed sales. “This is great if you are a seller but is much more challenging if you are a buyer,” he said.

Except for the low inventory, December marked the end of a year that has been a continuation of the steady recovery that the Twin Cities housing market has enjoyed for the past three and a half years. The sale price of a non-distressed (traditional sale) home was up 3.7 percent for the year; the price of a short-sale home was up 19.7 percent; and the sale price of foreclosed homes was unchanged. The combined increase for all three categories was 10 percent. Tousley expects the recovery to continue. “In the second half of 2016, increasing sale prices should start to bring out more sellers as homeowners’ equity positions begin to improve,” he said.

Multi-generational households – A rising trend?

According to John Burns Real Estate Consulting, 14 percent of U.S. households (that’s 16.5 million households) now live multi-generationally. The number is expected to increase for three reasons:

• Delaying marriage has increased the number of young adults who live with their parents.
• Surging retirement has increased the number of retirees living with their children.
• Significant immigration from countries where multigenerational living is the norm also has helped boost the numbers.

Tousley said that if the 14 percent number holds true for the Twin Cities, that would mean there are 189,381 multigenerational households in the 13-county region. He noted that according to a Consumer Insights survey of more than 20,000 shoppers for a new home, 44 percent they would like to accommodate their elderly parents in their next home. Also, another 42 percent plan on accommodating in their next home children who are 18 and older.

“Since most of the U.S. housing stock was not built for multigenerational living, this provides a tremendous opportunity for homebuilders,” Tousley said. “This trend is also increasing the number of secondary dwelling units, sometimes called in-law units. “These units can be set aside within a larger single-family home, such as a separate basement or attic apartment; attached to a primary residence, such as an apartment above an attached garage; or smaller separate units built on the same lot as single-family homes. “Over the next decade, look for these trends to change the makeup of the single-family housing stock in the Twin Cities.”

mortgagesThe St. Thomas indexes.

Here are the Shenehon Center’s monthly composite index scores for December 2015. The index, which tracks nine data elements for the three types of sales (traditional, short sales and foreclosures), started in January 2005. For that month, the center gave each of the three indexes a value of 1,000.

The December 2015 index score for traditional sales was 1,082, down .8 percent from November but up 5.2 percent for the year.

The December 2015 index score for short sales was 965, up 3.1 percent from November and up 6.4 percent for the year.

The December 2015 index score for foreclosures was 774, down 2.3 percent from November and up 3.3 percent for the year.

 

More information online

The Shenehon Center’s charts and report for December can be found at http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/default.html.

The index is available free via email from Tousley at hwtousley1@stthomas.edu.

Retail Real Estate, Twin Cities Real Estate

Twin Cities Retail Vacancy at Lowest Point Since 2008

The latest Colliers Retail Market Report for the Twin Cities pegs vacancy at 5.2%, the lowest its been in six years. This continues the downward trend from a peak of 7.3% in 2010. Trade areas with the lowest vacancy included Ridgedale (0%), Rosedale (1.7%), and Eden Prairie (1.9%). The highest vacancy was in the Maplewood trade area, at 8.8%. Net absorption during the first quarter of 2014 was 168,000 square feet, setting pace to top the 2013 absorption of 432,000 s.f.

Minneapolis - St. Paul Retail Trade Area Vacancy (1st Quarter 2014, source: Colliers)

Minneapolis – St. Paul Retail Trade Area Vacancy (1st Quarter 2014, source: Colliers)

Leasing activity in the quarter was led by the opening of a 49,000 s.f. Hobby Lobby in Woodbury, its first store in the Twin Cities market. The Oklahoma-based arts and crafts retailer is also planning locations in Blaine and Maplewood in the coming months. Additional lease commencements included the 400 Bar’s relocation to 25,000 sf at the Mall of America, DSW Shoes’ new 18,000 sf location at Eden Prairie Center, and a Cost Plus World Market at Arbor Lakes (also 18,000 sf).

New construction openings included a 178,000-square-foot Walmart in Cottage Grove and a 17,000-square-foot Lunds Kitchen in Wayzata. Construction continued on the Paragon Outlet’s new center in Eagan, set to come online this Fall with 409,000 square feet of space. The center is expected to open 90% leased, with retailers Saks off 5th, Gap Outlet, and Michael Kors already signed. Construction also began this quarter on the Mall of Americas Phase 1C expansion, which will include 150,000 square feet of new retail space.

The Mall of America Phase 1C expansion will add 150,000 SF of retail space as well as a new hotel

Sales activity included the Ackerberg Group’s purchase of 177,00 sf Calhoun Square for $69.5 million. Addtionally, the closed downtown St. Paul Macy’s was bought by the St. Paul Port Authority for $3 milion, or about $8/sf. The property fetching the highest premium this quarter was a 14,500 sf Walgreens in Chanhassen, which sold for $8.5 million, or about $590/sf.

Going forward, Colliers expects continued strong absorption during the remainder of 2014, led by the opening of the outlet center in Eagan. The grocery sector will continue to be particularly active, with several national and local retailers all expanding, including Target, Walmart, Lunds, Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, and Aldi. Also, Iowa-based Hy-Vee has announced plans to expand into the market, while Rainbow announced plans to close or sell many of its remaining Twin Cities locations.

Economics, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Residential Real Estate, Residential Real Estate Index, Twin Cities Real Estate, Uncategorized

House Prices and Lagged Data

mortgagesThe following is a posting from one of my favorite blogs, the Calculated Risk Blog.                -Herb Tousley

Posted: 27 Mar 2014 11:55 AM PDT

Two years ago I wrote a post titled House Prices and Lagged Data.  In early 2012, I had just called the bottom for house prices (see: The Housing Bottom is Here), and in the “lagged data” post I was pointing out that the Case-Shiller house price index has a serious data lag – and that we had to wait several months to see if prices had actually bottomed (the call was correct).

Now I’m looking for price increases to slow, and once again we have to remember that the Case-Shiller data has a serious lag.  (Note: the following is updated from the post two years ago). All data is lagged, but some data is lagged more than others. In times of economic stress, I tend to watch the high frequency data closely: initial weekly unemployment claims, monthly manufacturing surveys, and consumer sentiment. The “high frequency” data is lagged, but the lag is usually just a week or two.

Most of the time I focus on the monthly employment report, quarterly GDP, housing starts, new home sales and retail sales. The lag for most of this data is several weeks. As an example, the BLS reference period contains the 12th of the month, so the report is lagged a few weeks by the time it is released. The housing starts and new home sales data released recently were for February, so the lag is also a few weeks after the end of the month. The advance estimate of quarterly GDP is released several weeks after the end of the quarter.

But sometimes the lag can be much longer.  Two days ago, the January Case-Shiller house price index was released. This is actually a three month average for house sales closed in November, December and January. But remember that the purchase agreement for a house that closed in November was probably signed in September or early October. So some portion of the Case-Shiller index will be for contract prices 6 to 7 months ago!

Other house price indexes have less of a lag. CoreLogic uses a weighted 3 month average with the most recent month weighted the most, the Black Knight house price index is for just one month (not an average).

But, if price increases have slowed – as Jed Kolko argues using asking prices – then the key point is that the Case-Shiller index will not show the slowdown for some time.   Just something to remember …

Follow this link to the Calculated Risk Blog: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

 

Affordable Housing, Economics, Home Prices, Housing, Housing Trends, Industry News, Minneapolis / St. Paul Housing, Real Estate Trends, Residential Real Estate, Residential Real Estate Index, Twin Cities Real Estate

Would rising interest rates and home prices put the Twin Cities housing recovery in jeopardy?

 Researchers at the Shenehon Center for Real Estate think not, but they are keeping an eye on theMarket Report historically low inventory of homes for sale and what that could mean for asking prices.

Would a predicted increase in mortgage interest rates, coupled with a low-inventory-fueled jump in home prices, be enough to kill the housing recovery that has been under way in the Twin Cities for the last two years? That question is examined in the February Residential Real Estate Index, a monthly analysis of the 13-county metro area prepared by the Shenehon Center for Real Estate at the University of St. Thomas’ Opus College of Business. Even with a potential increase in both interest rates and the asking price of homes, “the housing market may slow down but the recovery will not be derailed since home ownership will remain affordable for most households,” according to Herb Tousley, director of real estate programs at the university.

What might happen to mortgage rates?

According to many sources, interest rates and mortgage rates are expected to increase moderately during the course of 2014. “Mortgage rates have been extremely low for the last several years and at some point they are going to have to return to more historically normal levels,” Tousley said.  A chart showing the change in mortgage rates since 1980 can be found on the Shenehon Center’s website at http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/default.html.

What might happen to home prices?

The number of homes for sale continues to remain at a historic low level with just 12,131 properties for sale in the 13-county metro area. “We will be keeping a close eye on the inventory because the number of homes for sale will have a direct impact on the percentage of increase in median sales prices during 2014,” Tousley said.  “We have been expecting an increase in inventory of homes for sale in the 15 percent to 20 percent range as we move into the spring and summer selling seasons due to a healthy increase in sale prices over the past year and generally improved economic conditions in the region. “If inventory levels remain stubbornly low throughout the year, the lack of supply will cause prices to increase more aggressively.”

Will homes remain affordable?

“If mortgage rates do increase moderately as expected in 2014, home ownership will still remain affordable for Twin Cities residents,” Tousley said. “Home ownership in the Twin Cities has traditionally been very affordable compared to many other areas of the country,” he added. In Minneapolis-St. Paul the home-price-to-income ratio (the median sale price of a home compared to the area median household income) as of December 2013 was 2.97 compared to the national average of 3.86.A chart on the Shenehon web site illustrates the impact of potential increases in mortgage rates and asking prices. For an example, the chart assumes: a current mortgage rate of 4.5 percent increasing to 5.5 percent by year-end; a 5 percent increase in the median home sale price; a 2 percent increase in median household income for a buyer who puts 5 percent down. In this case, the median sale price in February 2014 of $213,250 would increase to $223,912 by December 2014. During that time, meanwhile, median household income would increase from $63,564 to $64,835.  When principal, interest, insurance and taxes are added to the mix, the monthly payment increases from $1,326 to $1,507. As a result, the debt-to-income ratio in this case increases from 25 percent in February to 28 percent in December. “Payments do increase,” Tousley said, “however they remain within most mortgage lenders’ guidelines that the total payment is at or less than 28 percent of household income. Under this scenario, homeownership will remain affordable for most households.”

 Traditional Home Median Sale Price

How the Twin Cities market looked in February.

February’s severe weather “continued to have an outsized dampening effect on the Twin Cities’ housing market,” Tousley said. Median sale prices were essentially flat and sales volume was down slightly. The percentage of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) ticked up slightly to 30 percent in February, but an improvement over the nearly 44 percent recorded in February 2013. “If all this sounds a lot like the report from December and January, there is a good reason for that,” Tousley said, “but look for things to improve in March as the spring selling season gets underway.”

The UST indexes

Each month the Shenehon Center tracks nine housing-market data elements, including the median price for three types of sales: nondistressed or traditional-type sales, foreclosures, and short sales (when a home is sold for less than the outstanding mortgage balance).

The St. Thomas Traditional Sale Composite Index continued to decrease, moving from 1005 in January to 995 in February. Despite the monthly decrease, the index remains 2.9 percent above the level recorded in the previous year.

The short sale index was 851 in February, down 10 points from January; however it was a 9.24 percent increase compared to one year ago.

The foreclosure index also decreased in February, moving from 726 in January to 721 in February, a decrease of .7 percent. The index is up 5.68 percent compared to January 2013.

 Feb-2014-Chart

More information online

The Shenehon Center’s charts and report for February can be found at http://www.stthomas.edu/business/centers/shenehon/research/default.html.

Research for the monthly reports is conducted by Tousley and Dr. Thomas Hamilton, associate professor of real estate at the university. The index is available free via email from Tousley at hwtousley1@stthomas.edu.