Archive for the ‘Development’ Category

AIA: Architecture Billings Index increases, Strongest Growth since 2007

Wednesday, April 24th, 2013

In another sign of improvement in commercial real estate the Calculated Risk blog in a recent posting notes a continuing increase in the AIA Architecture Billings Index.  When architects get busier that usually indicates an increase in new construction is not far behind.

Arch. BillingsNote: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Continues to Improve at a Healthy Pace

With increasing demand for design services, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) is continuing to strengthen. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the February ABI score was 54.9, up slightly from a mark of 54.2 in January. This score reflects a strong increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 64.8, higher than the reading of 63.2 the previous month – and its highest mark since January 2007.

Conditions have been strengthening in all regions and construction sectors for the last several months,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Still, we also continue to hear a mix of business conditions in the marketplace as this hesitant recovery continues to unfold.”

• Regional averages: Northeast (56.7), Midwest (54.7), West (54.7), South (52.7)

• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (60.9), mixed practice (56.9), commercial / industrial (53.3), institutional (50.7)
emphasis added

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.9 in February, up from 54.2 in January. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects’ services.

Every building sector is now expanding and new project inquiries are strongly positive (highest since January 2007). Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an “approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending” on non-residential construction.  This index has been positive for seven consecutive months and suggests some increase in CRE investment in the second half of 2013.

The “A” Lot Shortage and the Buying Frenzy Intensify: What’s a Builder to Do?

Sunday, April 21st, 2013

The historically low inventories of homes for sale is creating new opportunities for home builders. The number of housing starts has continued to increase when compared to the last several years. While the number of housing starts is still considerably below the levels seen in the early to mid 2000′s, the increase in activity is creating an acute shortage of build-able lots in good locations. This shortage is putting an upward pressure on the price of quality lots. Prices in some areas are nearing pre-crash levels. The article below by Brad Hunter illustrates what is happening in other markets around the country. Home builders in the Twin Cities are saying they are seeing the same trend in our market as well.

house construction

Posted in National Housing Market   Written by Brad Hunter

As the lot feeding frenzy builds, more and more builders are scratching their heads at the prices they are being asked to pay for homesites.  Builders have a strong motivation to increase their community counts, but they are having to pay near-peak prices for lots in order to do so.  Decisions made by builders in the next six to twelve months will be absolutely critical to their ongoing financial health.

Last fall, we conducted a special nationwide study of all the public homebuilders’ lot positions, and we found that most of the public homebuilders had seen an erosion of their Vacant Developed Lot count (VDL).  In that special study, we looked at the VDL’s that were associated with the builders, whether owned or optioned, for all of their communities within our footprint.  We found that most builders saw a reduction in their lot inventory, but many of them started going longer on lots at that time.

We discovered the following changes in lot count, year over year:

Meritage’s lot inventory was down 22.4% from mid-2011 through mid 2012.

Lennar was down 18.2%

Standard Pacific, known as a land-LONG builder, was only down 4.3%.

Toll was up.

MDC was down 21.7%.

Beazer was down 20.2%

As a group, the publics were down in lot supply by 15.9% year over year.

Since this time, many builders who found a need to be LONGer on land have made significant progress in shoring up their lot positions.

The problem that has arisen is that they have had to buy at much higher prices than prevailed 12 months earlier.  In many markets, lot prices have jumped by 50% in a year.

The rebound in Phoenix home price and in lot prices is well known.  What is less well known is that NON-bubble markets like Houston and Dallas have also seen this kind of rebound.  In Texas, Fort Bend, Harris and Collin Counties have experienced a noticeable drop in available  supply of good lots relative to demand.  Here is a great case study:  In The Woodlands, in Houston, there has been a DOUBLING of lot prices in the past 12 months.  Lots in that community now run as high as $2,700 per front foot.

Even Atlanta, yes, badly over-developed and much-maligned ATLANTA, has seen a 30% increase in lot prices in the most desired neighborhoods.  That reflects the fact that the only lot transactions that are happening are in the “A” locations like South Forsyth.  We forecast that in another 18 months, there will be lot SHORTAGES in that submarket.  Many builders are jumping into Atlanta now, precisely because there are still some affordable lots there.

Lot prices in Naples/Ft. Myers have gone up 50%, and raw land values have doubled (and in some submarkets TRIPLED).  Of course, these percentage changes are based on low starting numbers, but the point remains that it costs a lot more to stay in the business in 2013 than it did in 2012.

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Seward Commons, A Sustainable Transit Oriented Development

Monday, February 18th, 2013

In the Seward neighborhood of Minneapolis, Redesign, Inc. is close to finishing construction on the first building in a multi-phase transit-oriented development called Seward Commons. The project is happening on light industrial property to the southeast of the Franklin Avenue light rail station on the Hiawatha Line. Phase I of the project is a $10 million, 4-story, 60-unit supportive housing project developed in partnership with Project for Pride in Living. Seward Commons will ultimately encompass 4 acres and include a mix of 300 multifamily units and approximately 20,000 SF of commercial space developed in six phases.

An aerial view of the Seward Commons site (Source: Redesign)

An aerial view of the Seward Commons site (Source: Redesign)

Redesign worked closely with the local neighborhood group and business association to develop a shared vision for the site, which includes transit-oriented design principles and a focus on sustainable stormwater management methods. As a non-profit, Redesign has a mission-based approach to development. While they do use traditional market fundamentals to analyze the feasibility of a project, their real estate decisions are based on their mission to build healthy neighborhoods and engage community members.

Redesign was drawn to the Seward Commons site in part because of the opportunity to better connect residential areas of the Seward neighborhood to the nearby Hiawatha Light Rail station. In order to accomplish that, they worked closely with the City of Minneapolis to improve the transportation infrastructure in and around the site, including adding a street connection to Cedar Avenue and bicycle access from 24th Street to the Hiawatha trail which runs parallel to the Hiawatha Light Rail line adjacent to the site. These improvements where consistent with transit-oriented principles of improving street grid connectivity and walkability. They also added value to the Seward Commons site by making it more accessible, which may improve the feasibility of retail development in future phases.

Seward Commons site map, showing planned development phases and infrastructure improvements to 22nd and 24th Streets (Source: Redesign)

Seward Commons site map, showing planned development phases and infrastructure improvements to 22nd and 24th Streets (Source: Redesign)

The project has not been without its challenges. According to Eddie Landenberger, Senior Project Manager at Redesign, the biggest hurdle thus far was securing the acquisition finance package, which included a mix of private loans and public funding from Hennepin County and the City of Minneapolis. Eddie also noted the complications associated with managing short-term industrial tenants in the properties on the site which are planned for redevelopment in future phases. Those short-term tenants provide cash flow which is vital to defray operating costs during the long-term redevelopment process, but lease agreements must be carefully structured to allow flexibility when the time comes for the next phase of redevelopment.

Redesign is now working on closing on Phase II of the project, which will be a HUD 202 senior housing project co-developed by Common Bond. Phase III is currently in the planning stage and will likely involve market-rate apartments. The final phases will be developed according to market conditions at the time, but will likely involve some amount of retail space.

Source: Eddie Landenberger, Senior Project Manager, Redesign

Here are the “Missing” Construction Jobs

Wednesday, February 13th, 2013

I recently found an interesting article about construction jobs and the recovering housing market written by Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko, check it out below:

Construction jobs are a big part of how housing recovery lifts the broader economy. But the construction rebound, so far, appears to be jobless. “Residential construction” jobs, as reported by BLS, were up just 1% in December 2012 from their lowest level since the housing bubble burst – even though new home starts in December 2012 were twice as high as their low point in 2009. Overlaying residential construction employment (monthly, in thousands, left axis) and construction starts (monthly, in thousands, right axis) data suggests a jobless housing recovery, with jobs struggling to turn around even as starts climbed sharply in 2012:

Who is building all these new homes? If starts are now twice their lowest level, why aren’t residential building jobs also twice their lowest level, instead of up just 1%? The answer: this is the wrong way to look at construction jobs. It turns out that construction employment is approximately where it should be for the current level of construction activity. Here are three reasons why:

“Starts” aren’t the right measure of current construction activity. Units “under construction” is more relevant – especially now. The amount of construction activity this month depends not only on this month’s construction starts but also on construction starts in previous months. That’s because single-family construction takes 4-6 months between start and completion, and multi-unit-building construction takes 10-14 months, on average. Therefore, construction starts indicate what will happen to construction activity in the coming months – not necessarily where it is today. And, in this recovery, multi-unit buildings are an unusually high share of overall construction activity, so the typical new unit is under construction for longer, making starts an even-worse-than-usual proxy for current construction activity. Instead of starts, units “under construction” – also reported monthly by the Census – is the right measure of construction activity to compare with jobs. This changes the picture dramatically: while monthly starts in December 2012 were up 100% (that is, have doubled) since the bottom, monthly units under construction were up 32% from the bottom.

The “residential building” jobs category understates growth in residential construction jobs. The BLS “residential building” category covers general contractors and construction management firms but not subcontractors, which are covered under another category the BLS tracks, “residential specialty trade contractors.” Importantly, residential construction jobs have been shifting steadily from general contractors to specialty trade contractors throughout the boom, bust, and recovery, so the narrower “residential building construction” category understates recent growth in construction jobs. “Residential building” jobs in December 2012 were up just 1% from the bottom, while “residential specialty trade contractor” jobs were up 4%. The combined series is up 3% from the bottom. Of course, some construction workers might not be officially counted if they’re off the books, and others might work on both residential and non-residential projects and not fit neatly into one reporting category. Still, looking at both the “residential building” and “residential specialty trade contractors” gives a clearer picture than looking only at “residential building.”

Follow this link to read the entire article: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/kolko-here-are-missing-construction-jobs.html

UST Team to Compete in the Gerald D. Hines / ULI Student Urban Design Competition

Thursday, February 7th, 2013

photo source: Minnesota Vikings

The 2013 Hines Competition is underway!

One hundred sixty teams from 70 universities in the United States and Canada are currently developing solutions for a site in Minneapolis’s Downtown East neighborhood, near the site of the new Minnesota Vikings stadium

The ULI/Gerald D. Hines Student Urban Design Competition, now in its 11th year, is an urban design and development challenge for graduate students. The Hines Competition challenges multidisciplinary student teams to devise a comprehensive development program for a real, large-scale site. Teams of five students representing at least three disciplines have two weeks to develop solutions that include drawings, site plans, tables, and market-feasible financial data.

The University of St Thomas team members are  Thomas McElroy, full time MBA student; Thomas Strohm, MSRE student, Michael Richardson, Master of Urban and Regional Planning  student at the University of Minnesota; Amber Hill, Master of Landscape Architecture student at the University of Minnesota; and John Briel, Master of Urban and Regional Planning  student at the University of Minnesota.

This is an ideas competition; there is no expectation that any of the submitted schemes will be applied to the site. The winning team will receive $50,000 and the finalist teams $10,000 each.

The ULI/Gerald D. Hines Student Urban Design Competition is part of the Institute’s ongoing effort to raise interest among young people in creating better communities, improving development patterns, and increasing awareness of the need for multidisciplinary solutions to development and design challenges. This competition is an ideas competition; there is no expectation that any of the submitted schemes will be applied to the site. The winning team will receive $50,000 and the finalist teams $10,000 each. Winners that will advance to the next round of the competition will be announced by the end of February.

9 worst urban planning moves in Twin Cities history

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013

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This article came to my attention recently.  It was written by Marlys Harris and it appeared on December 18th, 2012 in MINNPOST.  I think it is an interesting look at what happened and what might have been.

Herb Tousley

 

 This coverage is made possible by grants from the Central Corridor Funders Collaborative and The McKnight Foundation. By Marlys Harris | 12/18/12

Since I began writing this column last spring, I envisioned two year-end pieces. One would itemize the worst things that planners, bureaucrats, politicians, developers and We the People have done to our Twin Cityscape; the second would list the best. My thought was that both might provide some lessons about what improves the urban environment and what doesn’t — though, such is life that sometimes even the best ideas turn into misbegotten messes — and vice-versa.

Over the last year, I’ve been asking practically every person I interview for his or her suggestions. And, I have added a few I’ve collected since moving back here two years ago. Herewith, the baddies, in no particular order:

No. 1: The destruction of the Gateway District.

Located near the Mississippi, this area stretches south to the library and from Hennepin to Third Avenue S. Once upon a time, it was a park with an elaborate pavilion that welcomed those arriving at the nearby train station. During the Depression, however, it became Minneapolis’ version of the Bowery, complete with flophouses, taprooms and sleazy hotels.

 By the 1950s, the city decided it had to do something. The buildings were dilapidated and supposedly impossible to renovate. So Minneapolis won a grant from the Feds and over the next six or seven years razed 200 buildings and leveled 22 blocks, leaving a third of downtown vacant. Among the casualties: the Metropolitan Building, a then 80-year-old landmark whose central atrium was adorned with incredible iron grillwork. Buildings have gone up in the area, but it has never become vital. Much of the acreage is still devoted to surface parking lots.

“It’s now a dead area between two neighborhoods,” says Sam Newberg, founder of Joe Urban, Inc., a market research company.

The takeaway: I see two lessons here. First, you don’t knock down buildings until you have something compelling to put in their place. Second, large-scale projects are blunt instruments that destroy the good along with the bad. Among the flophouses and taprooms probably existed salvageable small buildings and rooming houses that these days, with an infusion of dough, could be turned into a walkable neighborhood of interesting stores that would give us some relief from chains. When it comes to urban renewal, it’s probably always better to go small and see what happens.

View of the State Capitol in St. Paul, 1974Minnesota Historical Society/Eugene Debs Becker

A view of the State Capitol from I-94, circa 1974.

No. 2: The slicing of downtown St. Paul in two.

The U.S. interstate highway system is considered one of the marvels of the modern age. On its broad lanes drivers can speed without interruption from city to city, almost as though they were in a tunnel. But those same concrete byways can and have blighted cities. Take St. Paul, which has a beautifully compact and navigable downtown. How much better would it be if I94 did not cut off the Capitol and its campus from the rest of the city?

“Separating downtown from the Capitol was obviously a terrible decision,” said Mayor Chris Coleman at a meeting of the Urban Land Institute a couple of months ago. Those lousy decisions, he added, can be with us for 100 years.

The takeaway: Freeways should transport people to cities, not churn through their guts. Highway engineers: Figure out a way to go around downtown, not through.

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Real Estate Executive Insights Series: Downtown Minneapolis Whole Foods Market Development on December 11

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

Mark Shoening, Ryan Companies

Mark Shoening, senior vice president of retail at Ryan Companies US, will discuss current development projects, including the Whole Foods Market project in downtown Minneapolis, as well as the challenges and opportunities in the development of retail real estate. A pioneer in the design-build approach, Ryan Companies is a full service commercial real estate firm with expertise in development, architecture and engineering, capital markets, construction and real estate management.

The Real Estate Executive Insights Series is presented by the Opus College of Business MSRE program. This series invites speakers from the real estate industry to provide valuable information and discussion about hot topics and current trends. This is a free program and is open to the public.  Please register here to attend this event.

Antonio Bernardi, Rome Campus Benefactor, Dies

Monday, October 22nd, 2012

This post comes from the University of St. Thomas Newsroom.

Father Dennis Dease, Antonio Bernardi and Archbishop John Nienstedt at the dedication of a newly renovated Sitzmann Hall Nov. 30, 2009. (Photo by Mike Ekern ’02)

Please remember in your prayers Antonio Bernardi, a Twin Cities real estate developer and benefactor whose gifts led to the establishment of St. Thomas’ Bernardi Campus in Rome. He died Oct. 4 at the age of 91.

Born in Casella D’Asola, Italy, outside of Venice, Bernardi studied in a seminary in the 1930s, and served as an officer in the Italian Army during World War II and served in North Africa. While stationed in the Tuscan village of Volterra, he met Cecilia, who would become his wife.

He completed an engineering degree and worked for AGIP, an Italian oil company, overseeing its drilling operations in Iran. He became the Italian Consul to Iran and eventually immigrated to Minnesota in 1962.

Bernardi purchased 300 acres of land northwest of what now is Interstate 494 and Highway 100 and helped to develop Edina’s industrial park. A business partnership with Curtis Carlson of Carlson Companies led to the construction of the Radisson South hotel, now the DoubleTree by Hilton. (more…)

David Frauenshuh, CEO of Frauenshuh, Inc. to speak on Tuesday, October 9th

Friday, October 5th, 2012

Learn about the opportunities and challenges of acquiring, developing, financing and managing real estate assets in the complex health care industry with David Frauenshuh, CEO of Frauenshuh, Inc. David Frauenshuh has experience running a full service commercial real estate firm with an emphasis on medical office, multi-specialty clinics and ambulatory care centers. 

David Frauenshuh, CEO of Frauenshuh, Inc.

David Frauenshuh is CEO of Frauenshuh, Inc. He has more than 35 years of experience in commercial real estate and currently has ownership interest in approximately 2.5 million square feet of real estate.

Frauenshuh, Inc. works in the development and financing of a wide variety of medical real estate complexes. David Frauenshuh also has expertise in headquarters development and acquisition of commercial real estate.

Frauenshuh is a graduate of Mankato State University and a native of the St. Paul area. He is a member of the National Association of Industrial and Office Parks and the Building Owners Management Association (founding member RPA designation). Frauenshuh serves on the board of many for-profit and nonprofit organizations.

The Real Estate Executive Insights Series is presented by the Opus College of Business MSRE program. This series invites speakers from the real estate industry to provide valuable information and discussion about hot topics and current trends. This is a free program and is open to the public.  Please register here to attend this event.

CityTarget: Steps towards New Urbanism

Wednesday, September 12th, 2012

This post was written by Dan Jackson, a 2012 UST MBA graduate.

With the recent economic downturn and rising costs of fuel prices, many Americans have started to re-consider their living and personal lifestyle options.  Many families and individuals have been moving back into the city, to be closer to work, to have access to public transportation and to be able to walk to city entertainment and shopping venues.  Mixed-use developments, consisting of spaces that allow people to live, work, play and stay have become popular and are on the rise in many urban cities.

Photo Credit: Racked Chicago

According to the Congress for New Urbanism, mixed-use urban form was the standard before 1950, but separate-use zoning codes and high-volume road standards subsequently helped to make suburban sprawl today’s default development option.  New urbanism provides an opportunity to reverse the course of this sprawl and strengthen the character, livability, and diversity of urban communities.  According to the New Urbanism website, this concept promotes the creation and restoration of diverse, walkable, compact, vibrant, mixed-use communities composed of the same components as conventional development, but assembled in a more integrated fashion, in the form of complete communities. These contain housing, work places, shops, entertainment, schools, parks, and civic facilities essential to the daily lives of the residents, all within easy walking distance of each other.

While the new urbanism concept is not new, many retailers and real estate developers have been re-adapting skills and resources to be able to find ways to appeal to this new urban audience.  Retailers have been able to better incorporate elements from new urbanism into design plans. 

Target Corporation is one example of a handful of retailers who are responding to the demands of the growing urban communities.  July 2012 saw the retailer rolling out their new concept, CityTarget, in a few select urban cities across the U.S.  The introduction of CityTarget has allowed the retailer to introduce elements of new urbanism into the market while maintaining its well-known Target brand. (more…)