The University of St. Thomas

Retail Rents Growing for First Time Since 2008

A recent report by CoStar indicates that quoted asking rents have increased across all retail property types in the U.S. for the first time in five years. During the first quarter of this year, 70% of U.S. retail markets had positive rent growth, indicating a turnaround for a market segment that has been slow to recover for many years. Growth in retail demand was strongest in western markets like Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, and San Diego.

Challenges remain for retail real estate, however. Although rent growth was positive, it was nevertheless slow and is unlikely to increase substantially anytime soon. Net retail absorption nationwide in the first quarter was 17 million s.f., down from from the year before. Many retailers have continued to shed stores and consolidate to the strongest locations. Demand for power centers is especially threatened as “category killer” retailers like Best Buy and Staples face increasing competition by Amazon and other online retail. In fact, Susan Mulvee of Property & Portfolio Research predicted that within many power centers will go dark within 10 years.

On the investment side, the single-tenant net lease market in retail properties with national credit tenants is going strong.  Brain Capo of Marcus & Millichap’s Orlando office indicated that triple-net deals are not lasting long on the market. Capitalization rates have compressed by 50 basis points in the last two months, with numbers approaching the pre-recession boom.

Published on: Thursday, May 23rd, 2013

America in 2013: ULI Releases Survey of Views on Housing, Transportation, and Community

A new report from the Urban Land Institute highlights the influence that growing demographic groups in the U.S. (in particular Millenials) will have on reshaping urban growth patterns. The America in 2013 report found that housing, transportation, and community preferences among growing demographic groups will likely spur more development of compact, mixed-use communities with good transit service. The report is based on a nationwide survey of 1,200 adults.

On the whole, the survey suggests that demand will continue to rise for infill residential development that is less car-dependent, while demand could wane for isolated development in outlying suburbs. The survey found that among all respondents, 61 percent said they would prefer a smaller home with a shorter commute over a larger home with a longer commute. Of the three major generations in the report, Millenials (or Gen Y) – the largest generation and the most  diverse – is the generation that is likely to have the most profound impact on land use. Numbering 80 million and generally not yet fully immersed in the housing and jobs markets, Millenials have yet to fully make their mark on the urban landscape through their preferences for things such as mixed-use development, proximity to shopping and dining, and walkability.

A majority of American who plan to move in the next five years want proximity to shopping, work, and activities (Source: ULI)

A majority of American who plan to move in the next five years want proximity to shopping, work, and activities (Source: ULI)

Sixty-three percent of Millenials said they plan to move in the next five years, along with 63 percent of African Americans, 54 percent of Latinos, and 56 percent of those currently living in a large city. The survey found that these groups prefer good transit, short commutes, diversity in housing choices, and mixed-use communities. According to ULI, these different demographic cohorts are all growing in number, and together are creating a significant market shift toward compact, mixed-use development that is different than the types of land uses that were built to meet the demands of previous generations.

Other key survey findings noted by ULI:

  • The appeal of homeownership remains strong: Seventy-one percent of all respondents said buying a home is a good investment, despite the recent housing crisis and associated decline in home values.
  • Half of those with no access to buses and trains were dissatisfied by this situation.  Fifty-two percent of the population said that convenient public transportation was important.
  • Safety and high-quality schools are the most sought-after community attributes: Ninety-two percent of respondents ranked neighborhood safety as the most important attribute; good schools ranked as the second highest at 79 percent.
  • Having space and proximity are equally important: 72 percent of the survey participants said having space between neighbors is a priority; yet (somewhat contradictorily) 71 percent placed a high value on being close to employment , schools, and healthcare facilities.

Check out the full report here.

Published on: Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013

Minnesota Shed 11,400 Jobs in April, but Metro Area Showing Growth

A press release from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) highlighted 11,400 jobs lost statewide in April of this year. The largest losses occurred in trade, transportation, utilities, and government sectors. The information, education, and health care sectors all grew during the month.

DEED May 2013 Jobs Report

DEED May 2013 Jobs Report

The Twin Cities Metro Area has bucked the statewide trend, having added 26,000 jobs over the past year. A market report by Marcus & Millichap predicts that the metro will add 49,000 jobs during 2013, of which a significant number will be in the health services sector. This employment growth, couple with stronger renter demand, has kept multifamily vacancy in the range of 2.5%, among the lowest rates in the nation.

The Twin Cities metro has added jobs every year since 2009 (source: Marcus & Milllichap)

Multifamily vacancy has remained low despite increasing supply (source: Marcus & Millichap)

Published on: Thursday, May 16th, 2013

Downtown East Set to be Transformed with New Stadium, Ryan Cos. Proposal

Downtown East in Minneapolis could be a very different place in a few years. On Monday, the design for the new Minnesota Vikings stadium was unveiled. Designed by HKS Sports & Entertainment Group, the stadium features a partial transparent roof (supposedly the largest in the world) and large revolving glass doors facing the Minneapolis skyline. At nearly 300 feet, it will be about 100 feet taller than the Metrodome. The stadium will seat 65,000 and is set to open in time for the 2016 NFL season.

The new $1 billion Vikings Stadium, set to open in 2016

Around the same time the stadium opens, a development proposal for Read the rest of this entry »

Published on: Wednesday, May 15th, 2013

Twin Cities Housing Market – More Good News in March

Market ReportMarch 2013   The Market is Building – New Home Construction Picks Up

 Prices are up and the Inventory of Homes for Sale Remains Low

Housing data in March continues to show improvement compared to the same period last year. The median price of a traditional (non-distressed) home sale was $209,900, an increase of 2.4% over the $205,000 reported in February and a 6.04% increase over the March 2012 median price of $197,950. The median price of $209,900 is the highest median price seen since last summer. The volume of closed sales in March 2013 was 3,732, up considerably from the 2,839 recorded in February 2013 and close to the same as the 3,692 recorded in March 2012.  The number of existing homes available for sale remains at historically low levels. In March of 2013 there were 12,941 homes available for sale. This compares to 18,291 in March 2012 and 23,467 in March 2011. See the table below for previous year’s March inventory levels. In March of 2013 there were only 3.47 homes for sale for every closed sale. Since the beginning of 2012 the inventory level of homes for sale has been consistently running 25% – 30% below the previous year’s level.

Inventory of Homes For Sale in March

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

12,941

18,291

23,467

26,608

27,462

31,836

30,605

30,309

Ratio of Number of Homes For Sale to Number of Homes Sold

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

3.47

4.85

6.93

7.37

8.63

11.10

8.66

6.13

 

 New Construction Continues to Surge

While the number of new housing starts is a long way from the levels seen in the mid-2000’s, activity in the first quarter of 2013 is substantially improved. The low number of homes for sale along with a continued improvement in general economic conditions are creating opportunities for new home builders as they are able to add to the supply of homes available to potential buyers. The data shows that the construction and sale of new homes continues to play a larger role in the Minneapolis / St. Paul housing market. Year to date through April 11 of 2013 there were 1,177 building permits issued for single family home construction. This is a 54% increase compared to the 763 permits issued during the same period in 2012. The closed sales data in March shows a similar trend. The sale of newly constructed homes in March is up 12.2% compared to March of 2012.

 Employment plays a major role in household formation.  As employment increases more people will be moving into places of their own. The unemployment rate in Minnesota is well below the national average at 5.5%. The state added 50,800 new jobs in the last 6 months. These positive employment indicators will increase the rate of household formation, requiring additional housing units. Since the inventory of existing homes for sale is expected to remain at historically low levels in the near term future, look for continued growth in the number of new homes built in 2013.  The increase in the construction of new homes is beginning to create a shortage of finished lots. The number of vacant developed lots in Minneapolis / St. Paul has been decreasing over the last several years. At the end of the first quarter of 2012 there were 24,559 vacant developed lots in the Twin Cities metro area (a 101 month supply). That number had decreased to 24,559 (a 58 month supply) by the end of the first quarter of 2013. As the shortage continues home builders are finding they have to pay premium prices for desirable lots.

Read the rest of this entry »

Published on: Friday, May 10th, 2013

Target Expands to Western Canada

Local retailer Target expands their reach from Ontario to western Canada.

Photo Credit: Smart Canucks

Photo Credit: Smart Canucks

Target announced this week 22 new stores will open in British Columbia, Alberta, and Manitoba on May 7 as well as 2 more stores on May 14. As previously announced, Target plans to open 124 stores across Canada throughout 2013.

In a May 6 press release, Tony Fisher, president of Target Canada, remarked “Target is thrilled to be opening stores in Western Canada, providing a one-stop shopping destination that meets the wants and needs of our guests. It was exciting to see the response to our Ontario store openings, which have produced valuable insights that along with our soft openings in Western Canada will help us to continue to deliver on Target’s Expect More. Pay Less. brand promise for guests across Canada.”

In addition to exclusive Target brands such as Circo, Archer Farms, Market Pantry and up & up; Target Canada will feature limited time collaborations with Roots and Sam & Libby footwear. Target plans to feature on-going collaborations as well.

Published on: Wednesday, May 8th, 2013

Micro-Apartments: A More Affordable (But Controversial) Housing Option

Micro-aparments are an increasingly popular trend in large cities with high housing costs, such as San Francisco, D.C., and Seattle. At just 300 square feet or less (some in Seattle are as small as 140 sf), micro-apartments are very small, but offer more affordable rent. A typical micro-apartment minimizes space through features such as fold-down beds and tables. Some have small kitchens, while others have kitchens and common areas which are shared among several apartments. By accepting less living space, residents are able to live more cheaply in high-demand areas.

A concept plan for three micro-apartments by R2L Architects (photo credit: Urban Turf)

The trend is not without controversy, however. In Seattle, where as many as 10 micro-apartment projects are currently proposed, neighboring single-family home residents have complained about the effect of added population density on street-parking, transit, and public space. Some have also complained that existing zoning regulations which regulate density through the number of kitchens in a building rather than the number of separate living units create an unfair loophole. Developers are able to build as many as six to eight separate micro-units sharing the same kitchen; from the perspective of the Seattle zoning code, these are considered just one residential unit despite being separate dwellings. Critics argue that this gets around the intent, if not the letter, of existing zoning regulations.

San Francisco is considering changing its building code to reduce the minimum required apartment size from 290 sf to 220 so as to allow smaller micro-units. Planning officials expect Read the rest of this entry »

Published on: Friday, May 3rd, 2013

Housing Has Bounced Back, but Capitol Hill Holds the Key to a Sustained Recovery

Houseforsale

The following article was reposted from Knowledge@Wharton

Published: April 30, 2013 in Knowledge@Wharton

The U.S. residential real estate industry is showing signs of a recovery. Demand for homes is growing stronger, driven by historically low interest rates and government subsidies. Job growth would, of course, accelerate that rebound. However, for a sustained recovery, housing supply must increase with both new construction and regulatory reforms that could bring to market homes that are “under water,” or those whose market prices are lower than their outstanding loans. Those were the main highlights from a panel discussion on real estate industry trends at the Wharton Economic Summit 2013, held in March in New York City.

A crucial element of the legislative reforms is to find ways to shield the federal government from home financing losses, the panelists said. The government ended up becoming the country’s biggest home financier after the 2008 housing collapse, when it bailed out secondary mortgage finance agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at an estimated taxpayer cost of up to $360 billion. Bipartisan political consensus holds the key to the reforms, panelists stressed.

The panel included Jeff Blau, CEO of Related Companies, a New York City-based real estate development firm; Jonathan D. Gray, global head of real estate at New York City-based financial advisory firm Blackstone; Jim Millstein, chairman and CEO of New York City-based financial advisory firm Millstein & Co.; and Richard A. Smith, chairman, CEO and president of Realogy Holdings Corp., a New Jersey-based real estate franchising and services company. Joseph Gyourko, Wharton professor of real estate, moderated the discussion.

Unexpected Recovery

“The metrics certainly indicate a much stronger interest in residential housing than it seemed in the previous six years,” said Smith. His firm Realogy operates in all 50 U.S. states and 102 countries and has a 26% market share of the U.S. housing market in sales volume. The recovery has gathered pace since the first quarter of 2012 and is “completely unexpected,” he added.

Consequently, home prices have strengthened and the overhang of unsold homes is bottoming out, but something “much more dramatic” is occurring, according to Smith. “We literally have markets where we have no supply, no inventory,” he said, citing New York City as an example of this phenomenon. He saw that across the country — a week’s supply of homes in San Francisco, no inventory to sell in Miami and an outpouring of open houses “in every market” where Realogy operates. “We feel very strongly that this is a strong recovery and it is sustainable.” In Phoenix, home prices are up 25% and they have risen in the “very high double-digit percentages” in Southern California, added Blackstone’s Gray.

Smith said the housing recovery is occurring despite impediments. He cited two issues relating to the 2010 Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. One is a decision on what constitutes a “qualified residential mortgage,” or QRM, because that would set the criteria for the down payment for home loans that underwriters require. A related second issue is whether a decision about QRM could encourage developers to resume homebuilding.

Increased housing inventory is critical for a sustained recovery, Smith argued. A resolution to the QRM issue could release some of the 10.8 million homes that are under water, he explained. “If we do not have the increase in inventory, then we will still have a recovery, [but] that will be anemic.”

Since 2009, underwriters have been wary of risk and are lending only to “the highest possible standard” of borrower creditworthiness, Smith noted. He called for a speedy resolution of the matter and hoped the new debt-to-income criteria would be less onerous than people fear they might be. He clarified that he did not expect underwriting standards to become more lax. He only wanted to get back to the “pre-bubble” days, when underwriters required credit scores about 100 basis points lower than current expectations of about 750, he said. (Credit rating agencies award scores from 300 to 850.)

Follow this link to read the rest of the article:  http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=3243

 

Published on: Friday, May 3rd, 2013

MSP Business Journal Hands Out 14th Annual “Best in Real Estate” Awards

The Minneapolis-St. Paul Business Journal gave it out its annual Best in Real Estate awards last week. The awards honor the best Twin Cities real estate projects in a variety of categories. Here’s a look at some of the winners in select categories. For the full list of  awards and nominees, check out the Biz Journal website.

222 Hennepin won of Best Mixed-Use Urban project as well as the overall award for best project of the year. The project is being developed by The Excelsior Group and Ryan Cos. and will feature 286 luxury apartments and a Whole Foods grocery store.

Dominium’s Schmidt’s Artist Lofts won Best Adaptive Reuse – Multifamily project. Dominium will renovate the former brewery in St. Paul’s West 7th neighborhood into 247 artist lofts with community art studios and performance spaces.

 

Advertising agency Mono won for Best Commercial Interior Renovation for their office space in MoZaic in Uptown Minneapolis. AWH Architects designed the space to meet Mono’s need for bright, open, collaborative space.

The University of Minnesota’s 17th Avenue Residence Hall won Best Student Housing Development. The $63 million building will have room for 600 beds and is being built by Mortenson Construction.

 

Sherman Associates’ Longfellow Station won for Best Affordable Multifamily development. The under-construction infill project will feature 180 affordable apartments and 10,000 s.f. of retail space across the street from the 38th Street Station on the Hiawatha Light Rail line.

Published on: Saturday, April 27th, 2013

Five Real Estate Tips from Warren Buffet

home-for-sale

Spring is finally here and the housing market appears to be making a comeback.  With prices that are still historically low and mortgage rates in the 3% to 4% range, owning a home has never been more affordable.  That being said, there are still some basic principles that potential home buyers should keep in mind.  In the articel below Tara-Nicholle Nelson list 5 real estate buying tips offered by Warren Buffett.

Article by Tara-Nicholle Nelson of Daily Finance

Billionaire. Oracle of Omaha. The most successful investor in the world. All of these are used frequently — and accurately — to describe Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company with upward of $130 million. Though his stock in trade is, well, stock and trade, over the years, Buffett has actually spun quite a bit of wisdom on real estate, and much of the advice he has given to investors in traded assets would also stand the average American homeowner in good stead.

Looking for some wisdom on the best approach to owning a home? Here’s a sampling of real estate tips from Buffett, right, the third richest human being on the planet.

1. The Basic Premise of Home Ownership — That Homes Increase In Value Over Time — Is Sound

Last spring, the Congressional Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission called Buffett in for an interview. He was asked to explain some of his bubble-era investment decisions, as well as to give his take on what in the heck had happened to the economy. In the process, Buffett expressed his belief that the housing bubble was inflated by an irrational, widespread belief that home prices would only ever go up — an extreme corruption of a generally valid premise. “It’s a totally sound premise that houses will become worth more over time because the dollar becomes worth less,” Buffett declared.

The sound premise, Buffett explained, got distorted and eventually caused the housing crisis when Americans started buying multiple homes to cash in on what they assumed was guaranteed appreciation, taking out “liar’s loans,” buying homes with no down payment and with unaffordable monthly payments — and lenders let them — all because of the assumption that prices could never go down.

Clearly, this assumption was wrong. As Buffett said in an earlier shareholder’s letter: “A pin lies in wait for every bubble.”

2. Buy Low (And Now Would Be a Good Time for That)

Buffett writes a letter to Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholders every year that is chock-full of his review of the company’s fortunes (literally) over the preceding year, his analysis of the stock market and the economy in general, and his smart, plain English tips on life and money and on life.

In last month’s annual shareholder letter, Buffett addressed the industry-leading 2010 performance of one of his company’s holdings, which sells and finances manufactured homes. During that discussion, the money maven declared that now would be a sensible time to buy a home, in light of record-high affordability: “Home ownership makes sense for most Americans, particularly at today’s lower prices and bargain interest rates.”

And Buffett didn’t stop there. He pointed out his own tenure as a homeowner as an example. “All things considered, the third-best investment I ever made was the purchase of my home, though I would have made far more money had I instead rented and used the purchase money to buy stocks,” he wrote. Then, to clarify for the readers who’d want to know what numbers one and two were, Buffett elaborated: “The two best investments were wedding rings.”

3. But Don’t Wait Too Long To Take Advantage of Low Prices

Buffett wrote a 2008 Op-Ed in the New York Times, explaining that buying while prices are low is stressful, because economic markets are volatile and impossible to predict in the short term, even for him. So, when conditions make an investment — in stocks or in a home — particularly advantageous, Buffett says not to hesitate too long. Painting a vivid verbal image to illustrate the likelihood that market prices “will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up,” Buffett warned: “if you wait for the robins, Spring will be over.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Published on: Friday, April 26th, 2013